After the first poll was published showing Reform ahead of the Tories, there was only one thing for Nigel Farage to do: hold an emergency press conference at the heart of Westminster. This afternoon journalists scrambled over to the Wellington Hotel to hear what Farage had to say after reaching the long-awaited ‘crossover’ moment when his party overtook the Conservatives. The Reform leader was on punchy form, branding himself the new ‘Leader of the Opposition’ and suggesting that ‘some of the polling industry were acting entirely dishonestly’ by not prompting for his party in surveys. He said that: ‘I’m pleased to say, as a result of my letter to the chair of the British Polling Council, they have been told now they really ought to be prompting for Reform.’
The one silver lining for the Tories is Farage’s own answer when asked if he was ready for this election
The former MEP then turned his attacks from the pollsters to the election broadcasters. He criticised the current Ofcom rules in which the proportion of coverage is based on performance in the previous two elections – in which, of course, Reform did not stand. Farage claimed that this shows how ‘everything about our politics is designed to stop new boys and girls coming in and to keep everything the same.’ Following the YouGov poll which shows Reform in second on 19 per cent, he says he is now entitled to a place in next week’s BBC leaders’ debate alongside his Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat and SNP counterparts. Farage also urged Starmer to take part in a head-to-debate so that he could ask why immigration wasn’t in his first six steps for government.
The demands for inclusion in the various debates help bolster Farage’s image as an insurgent outsider and will no doubt be an election sub-plot over the next fortnight. But the key message from today’s conference was the Reform leader’s focus on where exactly his votes are coming from. He says Reform is now ‘well ahead’ of the Conservatives in ‘the northeast, in the northwest, in Yorkshire and the Humber, in the east Midlands, in the West Midlands, and in parts of [the] eastern region.’ The ‘inflection point’ of Reform passing the Tories in polling meant that ‘actually, if you vote Conservative in the red wall, you will almost certainly get Labour. A Conservative vote in the red wall is now a wasted vote. We are the challengers to Labour. We are now the real opposition.’
This highlights the real challenge for the Conservatives over the next three weeks: convincing their voters in key parts of the country to stick with them, rather than switching to Reform. Now that Reform has come second in a poll – even if it is just one poll – Farage can plausibly, if audaciously, claim that a vote for Sunak is a vote for Starmer. While the Tories will almost certainly come second for both votes and seats on 4 July, Farage’s conference today shows how difficult it will be for CCHQ to frame this contest as a two-horse race between their man and the Labour leader.
The one silver lining for the Tories is Farage’s own answer when asked if he was ready for this election. ‘Not really’, he replied, with a smile as he cited various ways in which Reform was ill-prepared. One example is fielding candidates. In Doncaster North, Reform has not even put up a nominee – despite the Brexit party taking an impressive 20 per cent of the vote here last time. Farage suggested that there are upwards of ‘six million’ prepared to vote Reform at this election. There may well be, but unless there is someone for local electors to vote for, he could struggle to deliver on his bold talk of being the real ‘Leader of the Opposition’ after 4 July.
Join Fraser Nelson, Katy Balls and Kate Andrews for a post-election live recording of Coffee House Shots in Westminster, Thu 11 July. Bar opens 6.30pm, recording starts 7pm
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