Does Farage have a path to No. 10?

My contention was always that Reform UK would struggle to reach 30 per cent in the polls and, while the party is edging upwards, that still seems to be a ceiling. However, the latest MRP poll in the Sun suggests that, for Nigel Farage to become our next Prime Minister, the party need not gain much more support than it is currently attracting. The Sun had Farage on course to win 180 seats, largely by polling at about 30 per cent in some of the red wall constituencies. Labour and the Conservatives were each predicted to gain 165 seats. In such a finely balanced parliament, discussions about a Conservative–Reform deal would become otiose: a Reform–Conservative coalition would almost certainly emerge, regardless of any prior negotiations.

Reform is, at present, ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives in six of the latest eleven opinion polls, with a high of 28 per cent and a low of 21 per cent. The Conservatives lead in none – yet it is Labour that should be more concerned. At the moment, Reform is taking votes from Sir Keir Starmer. One hopes the Prime Minister is aware of this, and thus resists the deluded members of his party who believe that last week’s Supreme Court decision on biological sex can be blissfully ignored.