As the curtain falls on another jumps’ season tomorrow, the ups and downs of ante-post betting are all too apparent once again. Threeunderthrufive, put up three weeks ago at 20-1, is now 7-1 second favourite for the bet365 Gold Cup (tomorrow, 3.35 p.m.) at Sandown. With his favoured good ground almost guaranteed, he will have a live chance of defying top weight in the 20-runner contest.
My second ante-post bet in the race, Desertmore House, had looked an even better proposition. Put up two weeks ago at 25-1, he was heavily backed into 7-1 second favourite. He, too, had his favoured good ground looming only for his trainer Martin Brassil to decide to skip Sandown in favour of a run in his native Ireland. Ouch.
Not before time and after week after weeks of rain, good ground horses are finally going to run on their preferred terrain tomorrow in a big-race handicap so I am also keen to have a bet on AMIRITE for the Henry de Bromhead/Rachael Blackmore trainer/jockey combination.
Amirite has only run twice this season and has yet to run at all this calendar year but that’s entirely due to the soggy ground conditions. The eight-year-old gelding is a different horse on good ground to the one who runs on heavy or soft.
Off a mark of 142 and fresher than his rivals, Amirite has a huge chance of landing the spoils tomorrow so back him each way with SkyBet at 7-1, paying seven places. He is a point higher with other bookies paying less places.
Two other horses at bigger prices who will relish the ground are Kinondu Kwetu and Courtland. The latter is a massive price at 66-1 for a trainer/jockey family team – Peter Bowen and his son Sean – that has won this race before with an 40-1 shot: Hennlan Harri in 2017.
My second new bet tomorrow runs in the opening race on the Sandown card – the bet365 Novices’ Championship Final Handicap Hurdle (1.30 p.m.).
COURT IN THE ACT is yet another horse who has been waiting for good ground having won on that going twice in October and December last year.
Last month’s prep race at Ludlow, when second on soft ground, should have teed him up perfectly for this contest worth more than £50,000 to the winner. He’s lightly raced at five years old and likely to prove better than his current official mark of 120.
It’s only a matter of time before trainer Harry Derham makes his mark in a big way on the jumping scene and jockey Paul O’Brien is a big talent too. Back Court in the Act each way at 12-1 with SkyBet, again paying seven places.
Finally, I can’t resist a bet in the opening race at Perth today, the AK Bets Best Price Every Runner Handicap Hurdle (1.30 p.m.). LIVELY CITIZEN looks to be back to something like his very best from of two years ago when he was second in the Imperial Cup at Sandown.
I loved the way David Jeffreys’ nine-year-old gelding stayed on strongly off a really strong pace when fourth at Aintree two weeks ago. He can be marked up for that run because those who finished ahead of him all came from a long way back, suggesting hold-up horses had a big advantage the way the race unfolded.
Lively Citizen will relish the soft ground at Perth and I think he will run well again at a decent price. Back him each way at 15-2 with bet365, paying four places.
Next week, it will be time to move on to some bets for the Flat season, with some big races looming in early May.
Pending:
1 point each way Lively Citizen at 15-2 for the AK Bets Best Price Every Runner Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Court in the Act at 12-1 for the bet365 Novices’ Championship Final Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 7 places.
1 point each way Threeunderthrufive at 20-1 for the bet365 Gold Cup, 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Desertmore House at 25-1 for the bet365 Gold Cup, 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Amirite at7-1 for the bet365 Gold Cup, 1/5th odds, 7 places.
Last weekend’s settled bets: – 4.2 points.
2 points win Glen Cannel at 7-2 for the GS Group “Hands & Heels” Handicap Hurdle. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Salsada at 20-1 in Scottish Champion Hurdle, 1/5th odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Git Maker at 14-1 for the Scottish Grand National, 1/5th odds, 5 places. 3rd. +1.8 points.
1 point each way Twoshotsoftequila at 25-1 for the Scottish Grand National, 1/5th odds, 5 places. Non Runner. – 2 points.
2023-4 jump seasons to date: + 49.61 points.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 16 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 475 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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