James Forsyth

Final polls provide some cheer for the Tories

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All the polls tonight are in hung parliament territory. But judging from what I’m hearing tonight, it is the Tories who have been cheered by these polls. The first hurdle for Cameron to get over is having the most seats and votes. If they achieve that, then Clegg’s previous statements mean that the Tories would almost certainly get a chance to govern. These polls suggest that the Tories will make it over that hurdle. 

In Tory circles, there is a feeling that when you add in that the Tories are doing better in the marginals and how much more certain Tory supporters are to vote then there are grounds to think that the Tories might get a majority or very close to it. (Remember that Sinn Fein do not take their seats in the Commons, reducing the number of seats you need for a majority).

Obviously, the key thing is how the undecideds break—one polls of marginals today put the percentage of voters who have not yet firmly made up their mind at 40 percent. Those who are undecided tend to be undecided for similar reasons and tend to break one way or the other. It is these votes that are going to decide the election.

PS The great Anthony Wells is saying that the Tories will be between 300 and 310, Labour 220 to 230 and the Lib Dems 80 to 90. For what it’s worth, I predicted a Tory majority of four the other day. 


Written byJames Forsyth

James Forsyth is Political Editor of the Spectator. He is also a columnist in The Sun.

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