If a glittering eight-race card at Cheltenham tomorrow doesn’t whet the appetite for the Festival in less than two months’ time, then nothing will. Plenty of reputations will go on the line at Festival Trials Day and there will be an abundance of clues to which horses might be winning huge prizes between 12 March and 15 March inclusive.
Unsurprisingly, there are plenty of Cheltenham regulars in the Paddy Power Cheltenham Countdown Podcast Handicap Chase (Cheltenham 1.15 p.m.) headed by Il Ridoto. Paul Nicholls’s seven-year-old gelding has run no less than six of his seven most recent races at the course, including winning this race last year.
However, that was off an official mark of 138 and he will race tomorrow off a mark of 148. He deserves plenty of respect and probably deserves to be favourite for the race too but, at double figures prices, I would rather be on two other horses.
My first tip is GRANDEUR D’AME. This eight-year-old gelding was well beaten into fourth over this course and distance last time out behind course specialist Fugitif and the aforementioned Il Ridoto but he has an 8 lbs pull at the weights with the latter this time. Before that Alan King’s charge dotted up at Warwick on heavy ground in what the Racing Post race reporter described as a ‘canter’. However, he won two races last season on ‘good to soft’ so he does not need a bog to be competitive. Back him each way at 11-1 with William Hill, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes, all paying four places.
My other fancy in the race is GA LAW, a horse I have long had a soft spot for since, when my money was down big time, he landed the Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Cheltenham in November 2022. He hasn’t won, or even been placed, since then in five starts when, I am pleased to say, my money wasn’t down.
But I thought he ran a really big race last time out in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury in November despite being beaten almost 20 lengths by the winner, Datsalrightgino. He clearly didn’t stay the three miles two furlong trip that day and back to two miles four furlongs at Cheltenham could be just what the doctor ordered.
He should relish being back on better ground too, while his trainer (Jamie Snowden) and jockey (Gavin Sheehan) are in good form, and so back him each way at 11-1 with Coral, paying four places.
I think both Tightenourbelts and Es Perfecto will prove better than their current handicap marks given time but I am not going to tip either of them at their current prices for the Timeform Novices± Handicap Chase (Cheltenham 12.40 p.m.). Their prices of 7-1 or shorter look on the skinny side in this highly-competitive 12-runner contest.
Instead, at long odds, I am going to take a chance on a horse that was pulled up last time out: BOWTOGREATNESS. Ben Pauling’s eight-year-old gelding is not one for the mortgage because he runs as many bad races as good ones and he no wins from seven runs over fences.
However, Pauling has always rated this horse highly and if he can repeat the quality of his final start last season – when second to Midnight River in a decent handicap at Aintree – he has ever chance tomorrow.
Bowtogreatness would ideally want it softer than the expected ‘good to soft’ ground but that was the going description for his Aintree race. With the in-form Ben Jones (six wins from his last 25 rides) in the saddle, I am hoping the partnership can cause an upset. He’s 33-1 three places with Ladbrokes and Coral and 20-1 five places with SkyBet. But, on balance, back him each way at 25-1 with bet365, William Hill, Betfred or Unibet all paying four places.
I will leave the quality Grade 1 and 2 chases – 1.50 p.m. and 2.25 p.m. – alone from a betting point of view with the two races attracting a total of only 11 runners. The McCoy Contractors Cleeve Hurdle (3.35 p.m.) is an intriguing affair and I was tempted to put up Noble Yeats, back over hurdles and getting weight from some of his main rivals. However, he has been backed all week in from double figure prices and, at odds of 4-1 or shorter, I will certainly be leaving him alone.
My fourth and fifth bets on Trials Day come away from Cheltenham and are both in the big handicap at Doncaster, the SBK Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase (3.15 p.m.).
Early yesterday morning, I had expected to put up Forward Plan for this race because, just before the 48-hour declarations, he was still 12-1 with some bookies. Those prices vanished quickly and odds his current odds of 8-1 or less seem too short in a fiercely-competitive 18-runner race.
Instead, I am going to put up the only two horses that are out of the handicap but, fortunately, only by 1 lb each. County Durham trainer Rebecca Menzies thinks TWOSHOTSOFTEQUILA is probably the best nag in her 80-horse yard and his last three runs have all been lifetime bests.
Last time Twoshotsoftequila was a running on third at this track behind Forward Plan in the Bet365 Handicap Chase over this course and distance, while going back to last season he was a course and distance winner at Doncaster. As the (joint) youngest horse in the race aged seven, he has room for more improvement. Back him each way at 16-1, five places, with BetVictor, Betfred, Coral or Ladbrokes.
However, I am also going to put up the oldest horse in the race CAP DU NORD, although he is another not to put the mortgage on. Indeed, his recent form is distinctly uninspiring and he is, at 11, the oldest horse in the race.
However, he usually comes good at least once a season, he will welcome the quicker ground and he has dropped to a lovely handicap mark of just 121 (in fact, 122 tomorrow with his 1 lb extra for being out of the handicap proper).
Cap Du Nord has failed to take up several entries so far this month but I suspect trainer Christian Williams has been waiting to have the services of Jack Tudor in the saddle – David Pipe now has first claim on Tudor since making him stable jockey to succeed the retired Tom Scudamore.
Cap Du Nord is 8-1 with most bookies and the suggestion is two points win, not the usual one point each way. The logic behind the win-only is that, if he is back on anything like his best form, he will win this race but, if he has fallen out of love with this sport, he will not be in the frame.
Yes, I know that means, just to frustrate the logic, Cap Du Nord will be placed and not win but, hey-ho, that the joy – or otherwise – of being a tipster.
2023-4 jumps season
Pending:
1 point each way Bowtogreatness at 25-1 in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Grandeur D’Ame at 11-1 in the Countdown Podcast Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Ga Law at 11-1 in the Countdown Podcast Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Twoshotsoftequila at 16-1 in the Great Yorkshire Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
2 points win Cap Du Nord at 8-1 in the Great Yorkshire Handicap.
1 point each way Jetara at 10-1 for Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Brentford Hope at 14-1 in the Betfair Hurdle, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Stumptown at 12-1 NRNB for the Ultima Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Jetara at 14-1 NRNB for Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Giovinco at 20-1 for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Djelo at 20-1 NRNB for the Turners Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Home By The Lee at 28-1 for the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Mahler Mission at 20-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Vanillier at 16-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
There were no settled bets from last weekend.
2023-4 jump seasons to date: + 0.75 points.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 16 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over
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