Michael Portillo. Nick Clegg. Jo Swinson. Every election has its defining moments: the viral clip when a big beast is brought low, humbled by the voters in his or her patch. So, in 2024, who are the long-faced losers likely to be? Steerpike’s crystal ball is by no means infallible, but given the way of the polls, it seems Tories are more likely to be overrepresented among the defeated than not.
Back in June, the pollster Frank Luntz was asked to speak to the 1922 committee. He helpfully told its members that those Conservative MPs that with a majority under 15,000 ought to now all consider themselves to be at risk. Half a dozen cabinet ministers fall within that metric, as do dozens of their parliamentary colleagues. Here’s Steerpike’s guide to some of the names most likely to become synonymous with defeat next year…
Alex Chalk
The Tory equivalent of a much-loved film character who gets killed off to advance the plot. Well-liked in Westminster, the Justice Secretary isn’t one of those Tory politicians who gets the opposition’s blood boiling. But with a majority of just 981, his Cheltenham seat looks ripe for the taking by the Lib Dems.
Jeremy Hunt
An on-off figure of Tory governments since 2010, it seems hard to imagine a House of Commons without the softly spoken Surrey MP. But with the majority of his once true-blue seat whittled down to just 8,817, the Chancellor is another minister vulnerable to a Lib Dem surge. From the 2012 games to the NHS protests; Brexit shenanigans to the mini-Budget fall out, Hunt has seen it all. Could he be the poster boy of a Tory defeat next year?
Penny Mordaunt
Only a Queen could upstage the King and Mordaunt certainly did that at the Coronation in May. But her Portsmouth North base now looks precarious, boasting a Tory majority of just 15,780 over Labour last time. Such a defeat would likely end her hopes of making a third tilt at the Tory leadership, having previously come second and third. A big gain for Labour could have far reaching consequences for the rest of the 2020s…
Michael Gove
For years, he has been the minister they all love to hate. Along with Hunt, Michael Gove is the only member of Sunak’s top team left from David Cameron’s first Coalition cabinet. He infuriated the left with his schools’ success, enraged them with his Brexit crusade and confounded them with the artful way he discombobulates even the most assured of political interviewers. No wonder the Lib Dems are salivating at the prospect of turfing him out of his Surrey Heath seat (majority 18,349).
Lee Anderson
In 2019 Labour was humiliated in their Red Wall heartlands; in 2024 they’re looking to take them back. And what better symbol for that then defeating the Tory party deputy chairman on his home patch of Ashfield? Anderson, a man who has taken a fair few pops at Labour over the years, won his seat four years ago with a majority of 5,733. Can he cling on here next time?
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