1) Can Natalie Bennett do enough to spark another Green surge?
After Natalie Bennett’s infamous ‘brain fade’ the Green surge faded away. The media stopped giving the Greens the attention they had been and without the oxygen of publicity, support for the party fell away; this morning’s YouGov poll has the Greens on 4%, their lowest score since October. But tonight offers Bennett a chance to get her party back into the election frame. If she can deliver a few good answers and the odd zinger, that would be enough to get the media—and, then, the voters—to take a second look at her and the Greens.
2) Will Leanne Wood attack Miliband over the state of the NHS in Labour-run Wales?
The Tories are convinced that they can use Wales and the fact that the NHS is performing poorly there under the Labour-run administration, which has cuts its funding, to blunt Labour’s attacks on the NHS. But Tories attacking Labour is a dog bites man story.
Yet if Plaid’s leader Leanne Wood uses tonight to take Ed Miliband to task for the state of the NHS in Labour-run Wales tonight, then that would be quite a dramatic moment. It would show that these attacks aren’t just Tory point-scoring but reflect a real failure by Labour to competently run the NHS in Wales.
3) Will Nick Clegg air the coalition’s dirty laundry in public?
As Isabel wrote this morning, and Nick Clegg has conceded himself, tonight’s debate poses something of a challenge for the Lib Dem leader: he is neither an insurgent nor someone who is going to end up as Prime Minister. This will make it hard for him to get noticed. But one move that would guarantee him some attention would be to reveal some of the coalition’s private disputes in public.
4). Is Miliband the most plausible challenger to Cameron?
Tonight, Ed Miliband has to come across as the best and most plausible alternative to David Cameron. If he can make himself the tribune of anti-government feeling, then he’ll almost certainly be Prime Minister in six weeks time.
But there’ll be plenty of others on that stage wanting to be the challenger to Cameron. Nicola Sturgeon, who has the advantage of standing next to him, will want to be the voice of the progressive alternative to Cameron and ‘austerity’. She is, as Fraser reminded us the other day, a formidable debater and has the advantage both of being able—as First Minister—to point to different decisions she has taken in government and of being a fresh face. Nigel Farage will also be wanting to land some blows on David Cameron. His aim will be to present himself as the man speaking for all those left cold by contemporary politics.
5). Can Cameron turn the debate format to his advantage?
The Tories weren’t keen to do any debates at all, they regarded them as almost all downside for them. Indeed, many senior Tories hope that the fact this debate is taking place just before the Easter weekend will blunt its impact.
But there is an opportunity for Cameron tonight. The debate will, inevitably, centre on him as the six other party leaders try to land some blows on the incumbent. This, though, gives Cameron a chance to paint the choice at the election as being between him and the others, playing to the Tories’ competence versus chaos theme. If he can do that successfully, this debate could kick-start the Tory campaign.
Listen to James Forsyth, Isabel Hardman, Fraser Nelson and Sebastian Payne discuss what to expect from tonight’s debate:
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