Evan Williams has not got as many ‘Saturday horses’ as he once had but he remains a trainer that I like to have on side when he targets some of the bigger handicaps. The form of his stable, with the Cheltenham Festival less than a month away, is good and he had a double at Hereford earlier this week with horses priced at 17-2 and 6-1.
I am hoping he might have a winner or two at Ascot tomorrow as well because he brings two of his decent handicappers to the Berkshire course from his base in the Vale of Glamorgan, South Wales.
PATRIOTIK, who will be ridden by the trainer’s daughter Isabel, bumped into a well-handicapped horse last time in the shape of Red Dirt Road. We know that because, having beaten Patriotik off a mark of 128 at Aintree, Red Dirt Road went on to win again off a 5lb higher mark at Sandown, this time beating 12 rivals by eight lengths or more. Red Dirt Road’s official mark has now risen to 142 and he could easily be better than that.
However, Patriotik’s mark is just 2lb higher than when he was runner-up at Aintree and this consistent six-year-old gelding is surely going to pick up a decent handicap hurdle at some point. He would undoubtedly prefer the ground a little softer but if it stays on the soft side of “good” that should be all right. Back him 1 point each way at 15-2 with SkyBet in the Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle (2.25 p.m.), paying a generous five places.
Just over half an hour later, Williams’ ten-year-old gelding ANNSAM will line up in the Betfair Swinley Handicap Chase (3 p.m.). The horse missed the whole of last season through injury and he took time to find his form this term, running two poor races over hurdles.
However, there was plenty of promise last time out over this course and distance – three miles at Ascot – when he was fourth beaten just over nine lengths behind Venetia Williams’ gelding In d’Or.
On that run four weeks ago, Annsam was held up and made some jumping errors. I hope he will be ridden more prominently tomorrow and that could see him return to close to his best off a mark of just 140. Back him 1 point each way with at 8-1 with bet365 or Paddy Power, both paying four places.
This handicap chase is worth more than £56,000 to the winner and I want to approach it double-handed because I also fancy the chances of HIGHSTAKESPLAYER. Tom Lacey, who trains in Herefordshire, has had a slow start to his season and several of his string ran below form.
However, the stable’s form has been better over the past month and, like Williams, Lacey is adept at targeting a nice pot with his best horses. Highstakesplayer falls into that category having won four of his eight starts over fences. Ground conditions should be perfect tomorrow for this nine-year-old gelding and so back him 1 point each way too, this time at odds of 12-1 with bet365, paying four places.
At Haydock tomorrow, course specialist Royal Pagaille heads the weights for the Oddschecker Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (3.15 p.m.). He is the class horse in the race but the ground may not be soft enough for him to win. His presence, however, means five of the ten runners have to carry more than their allotted weight as they are “out of the handicap”.
This is never ideal and so my preference is for Lucinda Russell’s eight-year-old mare APPLE AWAY. A glance at her form figures suggests she is consistent but this is far from the case. Her run at the Cheltenham Festival last March was moderate, at best, and she has not had winning form this season.
However, when Apple Away is on song, as she was for a Listed win at Perth in her final run of last season, she is very talented animal and I am hoping she is on her best behaviour tomorrow. Back Apple Away 1 point each way at 17-2 with SkyBet, paying four places.
The weights for the Randox Grand National were published last week: I have already put up Paul Nicholls’ Kandoo Kid each way at 33-1 and I am happy with that bet now that the trainer has protected the gelding’s handicap mark following his win in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury.
The statistics show that I should be looking to the Irish horses given their winning record in the race recently but my eye keeps being drawn instead to horses trained on this side of the Irish Sea.
Monbeg Genius and Broadway Boy are both tempting at big prices, 33-1 and 50-1 respectively, but both need soft ground to be at their best. The former has proved to be somewhat frail in the past too so I am not going to back either now. If they line up on 5 April and the ground is soft, that would be a different matter, however. Nearer the top of the market, Iroko, another English-trained horse, also has a big shout but her odds of no bigger than 14-1 are skinny enough two months from the race.
Instead, I will put up one more bet for the Cheltenham Festival in the shape of a horse who is a much bigger price than he should be: SIXMILEBRIDGE for the Grade 1 Turners Novices’ Hurdle on 13 March.
This six-year-old gelding beat two decent horses last time out in a Grade 2 hurdle over the same course and distance as the Turners: two and a half miles at Cheltenham. Admittedly, he was receiving 5lb from both Potters Charm and Bill Joyce but he beat them by 8½ lengths and 12 lengths respectively.
The perceived wisdom after that race last month was that Potters Charm had under-performed but I am not certain about that. For it would mean that Bill Joyce underperformed in the same race too. Bill Joyce, trained by father and son Jonjo and A.J. O’Neill, was previously a good third to highly-fancied The New Lion at Newbury, beaten just 5½ lengths off level weights.
Could it be that Sixmilebridge is just a really good horse and he won last time out on merit? I hope so and that he gives trainer Fergal O’Brien his first Festival winner after plenty of near misses in recent years. Back Sixmilebridge 1 point each way at 16-1 for the Turners with William Hill which is offering both the best price and Non Runner No Bet (NRNB).
Pending:
1 point each way Patriotik at 15-2 for the Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Annsam at 8-1 Betfair Swinley Handicap Chase, paying 1/5 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Highstakesplayer at 12-1 Betfair Swinley Handicap Chase, paying 1/5 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Apple Away at 17-2 for Grand National Trial Handicap Chase, paying 1/5 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way July Flower at 11-1 for the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Liam Swagger at 33-1 for the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places.
2 points win Haiti Couleurs at 8-1 for the National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Handicap Chase.
1 point each way Sixmilebridge at 16-1 NRNB for the Turners Novices Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Djelo at 16-1 for Ryanair Chase, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Ahoy Senor at 50-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places.
2 points win Storm Heart at 12-1 NRNB for the Coral Cup.
1 point each way Galileo Dame at 16-1 NRNB for the Triumph Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places.
2 points win Storm Heart at 10-1 NRNB for the County Hurdle.
1 point each way Kandoo Kid at 33-1 for the Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
Last weekend: – 3.9 points
1 point each way Haiti Couleurs at 11-2 for the William Hill Top Price Guarantee Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, 4 places. 3rd. + 0.9 points.
1 point each way Aucunrisque at 40-1 for the William Hill Hurdle, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Our Champ at 50-1 for the William Hill Hurdle, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2024-5 jump season running total: – 23.76 points.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Comments