There are two competitive big races to look forward to on day three of the Cheltenham Festival: the Grade 1 Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (3.30 p.m.) and the Grade 2 Ryanair Chase (2.50 p.m.)
The former race is for experienced staying hurdlers over a trip of three miles and I am happy to have already taken on the warm favourite, Teahupoo, with a horse at a big price. I put up Home By The Lee at 28-1 before Christmas and he will line up much shorter today.
At half time, it’s pretty much honours shared with the old enemy, the bookmakers
I remain optimistic about his each way chances, especially as connections have reached for first-time blinkers. If Home By The Lee does not win, I would love to see Fergal O’Brien land his first-ever Festival winner with Crambo. The horse is a tough, likeable and improving seven-year-old gelding who will be hoping to triumph in a 12-runner field which includes several veteran campaigners.
Eleven runners are due to line up for the Ryanair Chase and the one-time favourite, Banbridge, is unlikely to be suited by the prevailing soft ground. There are several horses at the top of the market that are rated in the early to mid 160s and Conflated is one who will relish the soft ground.
However, I would rather back a horse that thrives not just on soft ground but also at this course and distance. Step forward FUGITIF, who is trained locally by Richard Hobson and who has rock solid handicap form at Cheltenham.
In fact, Fugitif has been admirably consistent and getting gradually better for the past two seasons, performing well last time out when third over an inadequate two miles. This extra half mile suits him much better and so back him each way at 22-1 with bet365 or William Hill, both offering four places.
I think there are some really promising young horses lining up for the Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (4.50 p.m.). They are principally the two Irish horses at the top of the market and two British contenders, DYSART ENOS and GOLDEN ACE.
If Crambo fails to deliver in the Stayers’ Hurdle, then Dysart Enos could give Fergal O’Brien that elusive first Festival winner. She is unbeaten in six starts over the past two seasons, including putting up a striking performance to win at Aintree nearly a year ago.
Back her each way at 9-2 with most bookies, paying three places. Frankly, she is an each way steal at that price despite Gordon Elliott’s team refusing to contemplate defeat for their mare, Brighterdaysahead.
However, I can’t let Golden Ace go unbacked too, given the quiet confidence behind her from her small West Country yard. Jeremy Scott’s six-year-old mare is clearly a much better hurdler than she was bumper contender last season. Back her each way at 20-1, three places, with Paddy Power, Betfair or BetVictor because I expect her to outrun those odds.
I have two more open ante-post tips in the other four races. I regard Bowtogreatness as a decent bet, having put him up each way for Kim Muir (5.30 p.m.) at 20-1. There is still 20-1 on offer with Betfair, paying five places. However, I also want to back a second horse in the race, also at a big price. GIT MAKER disappointed at Ascot last time out when going for a four-timer but put that poor performance down to the quick ground.
On much softer ground, he can return to his best form and he comes from a stable that knows how to train Festival winners. Back him each way at 25-1 with Paddy Power or Betfair, both offering six places.
I tipped Djelo each way at 20-1 for the Turners Novices’ Chase (1.30 p.m.) but was later disappointed not to see him win his last race at Sandown, when he was well beaten by Nickel Back. If he is only as good as that run, he won’t win later today but I think he is better than that, in which case he definitely has an outsider’s chance in today’s race.
In the TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase (4.10 p.m.), I think the bookmakers have the right two horses at the top of the market: Crebilly and Theatre Man. I prefer the latter but odds of around 7-2 for each horse are terribly short in such a big field so no bet is the recommendation. At a bigger price, don’t rule out In Excelsis Deo.
I am not going anywhere near the Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (2.10 p.m.) because it has all the look of a bookies’ benefit race. I can see why some tipsters have put up Le Milos over the past 24 hours with the Skelton team in fine form but, sadly, the double-figure prices on the horse have long gone. No bet is, once again, the call.
Fortunately, yesterday’s tipping went considerably better than the first day with an 8-1 winner and two placed horses at 20-1 and 12-1. As I said yesterday, the Festival is a marathon not a sprint and, at half time, it’s pretty much honours shared with the old enemy, the bookmakers.
I will be back again tomorrow at similar time with my best bets on the final day of the Festival, including a tip at decent odds for this week’s biggest race, the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Pending:
1 point each way Djelo at 20-1 NRNB for the Turners Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Fugitif at 22-1 for the Ryanair Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Home By The Lee at 28-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Dysart Enos at 9-2 for the Mares Novices’ Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Golden Ace at 20-1 for the Mares Novices Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Bowtogreatness at 20-1 NRNB for the Kim Muir, 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Git Maker at 25-1 for the Kim Muir, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Bravemansgame at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Mahler Mission at 20-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Vanillier at 16-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Panda Boy at 40-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
Settled bets from yesterday:
1 point each way Giovinco at 20-1 for the Brown Advisory Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. 3rd. + 3 points.
1 point each way Captain Guinness at 8-1for the Champion Chase, paying 1/4 odds, 2 places. 1st + 10 points.
1 point each way Harper’s Brook at 14-1 for the Grand Annual Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Libberty Hunter at 12-1 NRNB for the Grand Annual Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. 2nd. + 1.4 points.
1 point each way Doddiethegreat at 12-1 NRNB for the Coral Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Might I at 12-1 for the Coral Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 8 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2023-4 jump seasons to date: + 14.01 points.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 16 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 475 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a “point” is your chosen regular stake).
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