It is so-called ‘Super Saturday’ tomorrow with a host of great racing from Newmarket, York and Ascot. The fast ground, which follows yet another week of fine weather, has reduced the anticipated size of some of the handicap fields but there is still a host of competitive racing at the three tracks.
Before I turn to tomorrow’s fare, I want to put up bets for today’s racing at York and Newmarket. I generally don’t like to back horses on their seasonal debut because their fitness cannot be guaranteed, especially when racing against rivals who have a race, or in this case several races, under their belts.
However, in York’s Group 3 William Hill Summer Stakes (2.45 p.m.), CELANDINE is not only the pick of the runners on last year’s racecourse form but she is also the subject of some sparkling gallop reports from Lambourn handler Ed Walker. He has worked his three-year-old filly with the likes of his top sprinters, Mgheera and Balmoral Lady. In his Racing Post Weekender column on Wednesday, Walker revealed that connections had toyed with supplementing Celandine for the Group 1 July Cup at Newmarket tomorrow because she has been working so well.
Instead, going for the easier option at York, he said he expects his filly to be hard to beat if she translates her home work to the racetrack. So in this 12-runner field over six furlongs, back Celandine at 1 point each way at 5-1 with bet365, paying four places. Other bookies are half a point bigger but with one place less. At Newmarket, I want to back two horses in the bet365 Trophy (3 p.m.), a red-hot handicap over 1 mile 6 furlongs that is worth more than £51,000 to winning connections. The favourite, Endless Victory, will be tough to beat but he is too short for me at 3-1.
Ian Williams is a masterful trainer of middle-distance handicappers and he certainly knows how to prime one of his inmates for a big target. The trouble is that today Williams fields thee of the 13 runners in this bet365 Trophy and they all have a decent chance.
The shortest price of the trio, and the one with probably the best chance of winning, is Dancing In Paris who has run two mighty races in the past month, first at Goodwood and then at Newcastle. He is 4lbs well in as a result of this being an early-closing handicap as he will go up by that amount in future handicaps after his second in the JenningsBet Northumberland Plate late last month.
However, betting is all about odds and so I am instead going to back Williams’ two other runners. The first is ONEFORTHEGUTTER who is constantly under-estimated in these big handicaps. Now only was the gelding, now six, second in this very race last year, he went on to be third in the Sky Bet Ebor, Europe’s richest handicap, last August before filling the same place in the Virgin Bet November Handicap at the end of the season.
It is true that the horse has a poor win ratio – just three wins from 31 runs – but that may simply be because he contests such competitive races. Oneforthegutter is still nicely weighted off a mark of 92, ran well last time out at Ayr and, at more than twice the odds of Dancing In Paris, the recommendation is 1 point each way on him at 12-1 with bet365, paying four places.
The other Williams runner is REAL DREAM, who is 6lbs well in after finishing a close third to Coltrane in the listed Coral Marathon at Sandown a week ago. The form of that slowly-run, four-horse race could be suspect but Real Dream also ran a fair race in the Copper Horse handicap at Royal Ascot too.
With Tom Marquand in the saddle today, I loved the look of his price yesterday afternoon when he was widely available at 14-1. Sadly, since then the horse has been put up by two of the best tipsters in the land, Matt Brocklebank and Tom Segal, and his price has crashed. Nevertheless, back him each way 1 point each way at 17-2 with William Hill, Betfred Ladbrokes and Coral, all paying four places.
Turning to Super Saturday, I had expected to put up Holkham Bay in the LK Bennett Butterfly Mark Heritage handicap (4.50 p.m.) over five furlongs at Ascot. This horse was a hugely unlucky loser during Royal Ascot week when fourth to the trail blazing front-runner Get It in the Wokingham Stakes handicap over six furlongs.
Racing away from the main group of 21 runners, Holkham Bay won his race on the near side comfortably against six rivals, only to be beaten into fourth less than a length by the winner and two others racing far away from him. At five years old, Holkham Bay seems to be getting better with age and he has a wonderful record at Ascot – two wins and a second from his three previous runs at the track other than the Wokingham. However, his price of 7-2, added to his off-putting drawn in stall 1 and this shorter trip, means that I will give him a miss as bet.
Instead, at a much bigger price, I will suggest 1 point each way on EXISTENT for the in-form Stuart Williams yard. The Newmarket handler’ has won five races from just 20 runners over the past fortnight for an impressive strike rate of 25 per cent.
Existent is consistent having been second or third in his last six outings and I am hoping the booking of talented 7lbs claimer Ashely Lewis can be the deciding factor in enabling him to get his head in front where it matters. Back him 1 point each way at 11-1 with Sky Bet paying a generous six places in this 18-runner race. Other bookies have Existent a point higher but with less places.
My biggest fancy of the weekend runs at York tomorrow in the John Smith’s Cup (3.10 p.m.), a race in which I have already put up two bets ante-post. I am happy to be on Thunder Run each way at 12-1 but the horse I am sweetest on, now that he has his preferred quick ground, is See That Storm, already tipped each way at 14-1. I have high hopes for him even in an 18-runner handicap as competitive as this. Next week I am going to suggest some ante-post bets for the big summer meetings, including Glorious Goodwood, so watch this space.
Last weekend: – 5.2 points.
1 point each way Balmoral Lady at 8-1 for the Coral Charge, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Miss Tonnerre at 10-1 for the Coral Distaff, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Minstrel Knight at 11-1 for the Old Newton Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Paddy The Squire at 9-1 for the Old Newton Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. 2nd. + 0.8 points.
Pending:
1 point each way Celandine at 5-1 for the Summer Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Oneforthegutter at 12-1 for the bet365 Trophy, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Real Dream at 17-2 for the bet365 Trophy, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Thunder Run at 12-1 for the John Smith’s Cup, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way See That Storm at 14-1 for the John Smith’s Cup, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Existent at 11-1 for the Mark Heritage, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places.
2025 flat season running total: + 39.46 points.
2024-5 jump season: – 47.61 points on all tips.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
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