It’s less than a month until the Iowa caucuses, the first big vote of the presidential
primaries. It could finish off some candidates who’ve been shuffled to the bottom of the pack, and give us a better idea of the chances of those at the top.
Right now, Newt Gingrich looks most likely to be celebrating on January 3rd. As Fraser suggested last
weekend, he seems to be gaining most from Herman Cain’s withdrawal, and now leads the field both nationally and in Iowa. An average of the five polls from the past week, and reallocating Cain’s
voters to their second choice candidate, reveals an 11-point lead for Gingrich:
27 days is, of course, plenty of time for Gingrich’s lead to go the same way as Bachmann’s, Perry’s and Cain’s — especially with four TV debates still to come before the caucuses, three of
them in Iowa. And even if it does hold up, there’s every chance his ground game will be too weak to win over the town halls. But Newt’s 11-point lead is not to be sniffed at. It’s the biggest any
candidate has enjoyed in Iowa this year, and Nate Silver’s research shows that every candidate
since 1980 with a double-digit lead at this point has won the caucuses.
If Gingrich does win in Iowa, will he end up being a Barack Obama or a Mike Huckabee? On the one hand, he currently lacks the strong organisation and funds that helped Obama go from his Iowa win to
the nomination in 2008. On the other, his strength in other early states — such as South Carolina and Florida — and his recent endorsement by the influential New Hampshire Union Leader should allow him to build on an Iowa victory, as Huckabee
failed to do. And Gingrich would be very well-placed to pick up supporters from the likes of Santorum, Bachmann and Perry, should they drop out.
For Mitt Romney, victory in Iowa is not essential. He has long appreciated that Iowa better suits other candidates and has focused his efforts on New Hampshire instead, where he holds a strong
double-digit lead. But it would be a major coup if he pulls off a win in the caucuses. He’d very likely follow it up with wins in New Hampshire, Nevada and Michigan, which might make him look
unstoppable going into Super Tuesday in March. But if Romney does badly in Iowa, his route to the nomination would be much harder. His lead in New Hampshire may well come under threat, at which
point he’d lose any semblance of inevitability he has left.
With so much at stake, expect some very intensive campaigning over the Christmas period.
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