When the Sunday newspaper, Le Journal Du Dimanche, recently published its annual list of France’s fifty most popular personalities, politicians barely got a look in. Only two made the cut: Emmanuel Macron, at number 35, and Marine Le Pen, at 48. When the list was first published in 1988 the president of France was François Mitterrand, ranked third, one of fifteen political figures that year.
Frédéric Dabi, the head of IFOP, the polling company responsible for the annual list, explained that its changing composition was telling. ‘It is a reflection of the society’s mistrust towards its politicians,’ he said, noting that conversely admiration for scientists, sports stars and comedians had increased over the years.
‘It has to be said we are in an unprecedented era of pessimism,’ remarked Dabi. Asked if he detected the same groundswell of unrest that preceded the Yellow Vest movement of 2017/18, Dabi replied that the despair was greater because of the dire economic situation.
Even Macron, a man frequently accused of being out of touch, is aware of the potent symbolism of the baguette
Every day the media report on the ramifications of the soaring energy costs, the small businesses struggling to survive as the consequences of France’s disastrous energy strategy this century hit home. Emmanuel Macron blames Putin, but the people know much of the real blame lies with him and his predecessor, Francois Hollande, for prioritising renewable energy over nuclear.
The consequences of Macron’s equally short-sighted Covid response are also now being felt; what did he think would happen to cafes and restaurants that were forced to close for more than six months in 2020/21?
A recent report revealed that over 41,000 businesses went bust in 2022, 14,000 more than the previous year, and this year there are warnings that number could increase by 30 per cent. Worst hit is the hospitality sector, where insolvencies doubled on 2021.
Now restaurant owners face energy bills that, in some cases, have increased ten fold. Their union leader, Thierry Marx, has written an open letter to Bruno Le Maire, the economy minister, warning him of the gravity of the situation and accusing the energy crisis of profiteering. Do something, he told Le Maire, ‘or our businesses will close down and France will take to the streets.’
The message is the same from France’s 33,000 boulangeries, many of whom are on the brink of going out of business because they can’t pay their rocketing energy bills. Last week, the prime minister, Elisabeth Borne, promised the government would do everything to ease the burden on bakers, including staggering the payment of taxes and social security contributions over time. Le Maire has demanded energy suppliers renegotiate their contracts with bakers who can’t pay bills that have risen as steeply as restauranteurs.
Last Thursday, Macron hosted some bakers to the Élysée for the traditional New Year cutting of the galette. He championed the profession and extended his support, but behind the bonhomie as he wielded the knife the president will be worried.
Even he, a man frequently accused of being out of touch, is aware of the potent symbolism of the baguette, which in November received Unesco’s world heritage status. For many villages in La France Profonde, the boulangerie is the beating heart of the community; if they start to go bust what message will that send to the people?
Against this backdrop of economic strife, Macron is determined to push through pension reforms he first tried to introduce in 2019, before the onset of Covid led to their suspension. That initial attempt led to weeks of strike action on public transport, bringing much of Paris to a standstill. The unions have warned there will be a repeat if the government extends the age of retirement from its current 62 to 64 or 65. Some economists say that France – whose public debt to GDP is 113.7 per cent – is in urgent need of such reform and should raise the age of retirement to 67.
Frédéric Dabi believes that the climate is conducive to what he calls the ‘gilet-jaunisation’ of France; in other words the return of the Yellow Vest movement that rattled Macron with its scale and seething anger.
Others aren’t so sure. Jérôme Rodrigues, one of the figureheads of the movement five years ago has expressed his scepticism.
‘Everyone is talking about a ‘comeback’, but the Yellow Vests alone won’t reignite anything because there has been too much bloodshed,’ he said. ‘People are afraid to take to the streets.’
Rodrigues lost an eye to a rubber bullet fired from a police gun in 2019, one of dozens of demonstrators who suffered life-changing injuries during the weeks of protests. The police response was criticised by human rights’ organisations, but its ferocity achieved its aim of frightening the people off the streets. Since then, the government has invested in dozens of new and improved armoured vehicles for the security forces; last autumn, it was announced that 8,500 police will be recruited in Macron’s second term of office, with 3,000 the target for 2023.
Hundreds of armour-clad riot police were in Paris on Saturday to greet the Yellow Vest demonstrators who gathered to express their dissatisfaction with the government. They were small in number, just 2,000, and across France fewer than 5,000 people took to the streets.
Have the French been cowed into submission or are they biding their time? The next demonstration is scheduled for 23 January, and this one is being led by the collective for the survival of boulangeries and artisans.
Many more ailing professions will be represented, particularly as tomorrow Elisabeth Borne unveils the retirement reform. Over the weekend, one union leader, Laurent Berger of the CFDT, warned the PM to leave the retirement age alone because ‘there is a lot of social tension…a lot of negative feeling among the population.’
Another leader, Frédéric Souillot, was more direct, declaring: ‘If Emmanuel Macron wants to make it the mother of reforms, for us it will be the mother of battles’.
Macron’s reputation is on the line. He came to power in 2017 with a promise to the world to reform the labour market and make France more business friendly. Covid interrupted what he’d begun so he now intends to crack on, liberated by the knowledge that he is in his final term of office.
If he’s spoiling for a fight, then so are the unions and the workers, who despise the ‘president of the rich’. It is likely to be a brutal confrontation, with blood on the streets, but will it be Macron or the masses who back down?
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