Freedom in the desert

When in power, authoritarian regimes can look immovable – even when, in hindsight, they turn out to have been brittle. This seems to have been the case with Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali’s Tunisian regime.

Weeks ago, nobody would have believed that the Tunisian strongman, who has held power for more than 23 years, could have been chased from office so quickly. A diplomat friend who served in Tunis marvelled at the dictatorship, where information was so restricted that he depended on information from colleagues stationed elsewhere in the region.
Ben Ali’s rule was apparently total; the opposition was comprehensively suppressed and the population had little scope for expression or assembly.

A month ago, however, unrest erupted after an unemployed graduate set himself alight after police confiscated fruit and vegetables he sold without a permit. Fed up by the state’s suppression and angry over the levels of unemployment – with Ben Ali and his family seen as having enriched themselves at the expense of the nation – the people took to the streets.

Demonstrations were followed by a lethal crack-down, which spawned further demonstration. Then Ben Ali sought to compromise, offering concessions including the promise to stand down in 2014 and hold elections. When that did not work, Ben Ali sought to impose a state of emergency and dismiss the government.

By then, however, it was too late. In the coming days it will become clear who in the government and military forced Ben Ali to concede defeat. What is clear is that he has fled to Malta and been replaced temporarily by Mohamed El Ghannouchi, the prime minister.

It remains unclear whether the regime will live on in some guise or whether it really will change: Ben Ali, for instance, took over from a dictator, Habib Bourguiba who ruled Tunisia from 1956 to 1987

But, more importantly, these events will cause authoritarian rulers across the Middle East to reflect. For, as Hillary Clinton has said, many Middle Eastern countries are “sinking into the sand” because they have not addressed unemployment, resource problems and the demands of the young.
Ben Ali was not brought down by Islamism – so ramping up the Islamist agenda, as Saudia Arabia did in the 1990s, will not help. His seemingly unassailable regime collapsed in a matter of weeks because of corruption and a failure to deliver jobs.

There used to be a criticism of democracy – people cannot eat a ballot. True, but nor can they eat a soldier’s boot. To progress, Middle Eastern countries will have to tackle corruption, break monopolies, embrace competition and open themselves up to investment, migration, finance and even uncontrolled information; in other words, adopt some of the elements of a free society.