From coalition to chaos – get ready for the age of indecision

A recent email from Samantha Cameron started an intriguing debate in the Prime Minister’s social circle. It was an invitation to a Christmas party at Chequers and word quickly spread on the Notting Hill grapevine that the PM was convening an unusually large gathering of friends at his country retreat. So, the guests wondered: were they being asked around because the Camerons were having a last hurrah at Chequers, sensing that they would be evicted by the electorate? Or was the bash being thrown because they were in celebratory mood, convinced that the political tide has turned their way?

This confusion is understandable. We might only be three months away from the start of the election campaign but only a fool would predict the result with much confidence. Not since 1923, when Ramsay MacDonald became Labour’s first Prime Minister despite the Tories winning the most seats and votes, has there been a British general election which has been so hard to call.

Next May’s election will be a war of the weak between Labour and the Conservatives. Labour has two problems that would normally be considered fatal for an opposition: they trail on both economic competence and leadership. Indeed, a poll ahead of the Autumn Statement found that it was not only David Cameron and George Osborne who were more trusted than Ed Miliband and Ed Balls on the economy but Nigel Farage too, albeit by a small margin.

But the Conservatives are hardly short of problems. They have not won an election for 22 years now, and remain becalmed in the low 30s in the opinion polls. It must put down the Ukip insurgency, and translate the economic recovery into a feel-good factor. Then there is the return of Alex Salmond and prospect of an SNP-Labour parliamentary alliance. Even the most optimistic Tory cabinet ministers accept that a majority is more than the Tories can realistically hope for.