Gambling on Iran

Iran is, beyond doubt, a sponsor of terrorism and this week it has been made much stronger. It has (again) agreed not to make a nuclear bomb and in return trade sanctions are being dropped — so money will start to flow in once more. We can be sure that the cash will soon find its way to Hezbollah in Syria, and to what remains of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. A stronger Iran means a longer and bloodier Syrian civil war, a more vulnerable Israel and a further injection of money and arms into the world’s deadliest war zones. None of this is in doubt.

The question is whether, after this week’s deal, Iran will be less likely to menace the region as a nuclear power. The ayatollahs have allowed inspectors in, and agreed to the quick return of sanctions if they go back on their word. But Iranians are past masters at playing the West for fools, and capitalising on the great desire of Washington to believe that a historic breakthrough is possible; that a fanatical regime dedicated to Israel’s destruction can be tamed; that it will prefer an enriched economy to enriched uranium.

It’s possible that if sanctions had been left in place they might have toppled this regime in the end — just as the Soviet Union crumbled when its economy began to stagnate. But the experience of North Korea suggests that there is no clear relationship between prosperity and nuclear weapons. Crackpot regimes can usually find the money for nukes, especially if they consider them to be their best chance of survival. Keeping Iran under the acute pain of sanctions would not have precluded its becoming the world’s tenth nuclear power.