GB demolished by TB

Earlier this week, the expectation was the the Brownite attack dogs would set about demolishing David Miliband in today’s papers.  But – as I outlined here – they were soon brought to heel by Brown, on Stephen Carter’s advice.  So what’s in today’s paper’s instead?  Answer: a whole load of trouble for our Prime Minister.

The worst for him is in the Mail on Sunday.  They’ve managed to get their hands on what is alleged to be a memo sent out by Tony Blair after last year’s Labour conference.  In it, he lauches a scathing assault on Brown and his premiership.  Our Dear Leader is accused of being a “lamentable” and “vacuous” prime minister, who’s “junked the [Blairite] policy agenda but had nothing to put in its place”.  Here’s the full text [TB = Tony Blair; GB = Gordon Brown; DC = David Cameron; NL = New Labour]:

“I am passing this message on to GB – not in these terms – and will try to help; but at present, there is every indication that the lessons will not be learnt.

There has been a lamentable confusion of tactics and strategy. Tactically, it was thought clever to define by reference to TB i.e. this was not the era of spin, we are going to be honest, the style would change etc.

Strategically the consequence was twofold: a) we dissed our own record – instead of saying we are building on the achievements, confronting new challenges, we joined in the attack on our own ten years – a fatal mistake if we do not correct it and b) because we were disowning ourselves as a government, we junked the TB policy agenda but had nothing to put in its place.

So tactically we took the benefit of the anti-TB feeling, but strategically, we ended up accepting our opponents’ propaganda and appearing incapable of articulating a forward policy agenda.

The real problem was not the brilliance of the Tory conference, but the hubris and vacuity of our own. This meant the Tories, by having something to say on policy, appeared substantial and to represent the future.

The truth is that DC was in trouble long before TB left, but that was because he was being forced to choose on NL policy and found as a result that he couldn’t differentiate properly. The Tory policy is still not up to much but they are able to get traction on inheritance tax – unbelievably boosted by our own briefing – because otherwise the policy field is left wide open. DC is confused by proper strategy but immensely empowered by short-term tactics.

The choice is and was always between GB running as the change candidate or as continuity NL. He never needed to worry about distancing on Iraq – it was never going to be seen as his issue; but he really needed to be seen as continuing NL not ditching it. By trying to be change, he played exactly the same game the media wanted but never the game that gives us the only chance of a 4th term.”

All of which will have Brown spluttering into his cornflakes this morning.  There’s more though.  The Mail on Sunday have produced two polls.  Respondents to the first designated Brown as the worst post-war prime minister.  Whilst the second found that only 16 of the 22 Cabinet ministers were prepared to tell the newspaper that they think Brown should be leading the party into the next election.

It’s the Blair memo that commentators will return to again and again – and rightly so.  It’s significance is hard to overestimate.  Brown did everything he could to undermine the Blair premiership, and now he’s reaping what he’s sown.  The memo should encourage the old divides between Blairite and Brownite to emerge from their relative dormancy and reap more damage on the party – and its leadership – than ever before.  Who leaked it?  Someone close to Team Miliband, most probably.  Someone who wanted to undermine Brown no end.