Georgia sheds light on the mind of Cameron

The final phase of preparing the country for Prime Minister Cameron is under way. Having decontaminated the brand and marched ahead of Labour in the polls, the Tories are now introducing the country to Statesman Cameron.

Politics abhors a vacuum. So with Gordon Brown hunkered down planning his autumn ‘relaunch’ and David Miliband practising looking like an innocent flower while being the serpent underneath, Cameron had the opportunity to act the statesman during the Georgia crisis. He did so, even going to Tbilisi to convey Britain’s solidarity with Georgia. As one top Tory purred to me, ‘He’s combined the toughness of a Thatcher, with the tactical acumen of a Blair.’

It is a sign of the change in the political weather that during this episode Cameron appeared a plausible Prime Minister; the contrast to the Conservatives’ chaotic response to the war in the Lebanon could not have been starker. But the last few days have also shone a light on what foreign policy might be like under a Cameron government.

Predicting how a Prime Minister would handle world affairs is an art not a science; few would have foreseen in 1995 that Tony Blair would fight five wars as Prime Minister. We do not know who the next American president will be, arguably the most important determinant of what Cameron’s foreign policy would be — note how a conversation with John McCain was the precursor to a further toughening of the Tory position on Russia. Nor do we know what might happen in the next two years — a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, a war over the Crimea — to reshape the international order. It is no surprise, then, that those inside the policy-making process stress that it is a work in progress.