Over beer, pretzels and sausages, guests gathered last night at the German ambassador’s house in Belgravia to watch the federal election results come in. The fact that the mood scarcely changed after the 5 p.m exit poll hinted at the prevailing sense of relief. Across London, similar sentiments were likely shared in Downing Street. The Christian Democrats, came top on 28.6 per cent, a result at the lower end of expectations. But barring any unforeseen circumstances, it means the CDU will provide the next Chancellor in Friedrich Merz.
He will now work to build a stable coalition in the 630-strong Bundestag, potentially with Olaf Scholz’s SPD, who came third on 16.4 per cent. The two parties’ shared goal is shutting out the AfD, who finished on 20.8 per cent. Together, the two parties only have 327 seats – some way short of the two thirds majority needed to amend the constitution or amend the debt brake. But four years of co-operation now beckons between the establishment of the centre-right and centre-left. Crucially, the failure of the smaller FDP and BSW parties to hit the 5 per cent threshold means Merz will likely avoid a three-way coalition.
From a UK government perspective, that is an attractive outcome. Both in Westminster and Whitehall, there are deep, long-standing ties to both parties – unlike the AfD. Merz almost sounded like Keir Starmer in his reaction to the result, saying his aim was to form a government by Easter to ‘demonstrate to the world that Germany is being reliably governed again.’ Half of the G7 leaders in place when Starmer took office are now gone: first Ishiba, then Biden, next Trudeau and now Olaf Scholz too. It will be a relief for London that they now have a leader who looks to be in place for the foreseeable future. ‘We will take any stability we can get’ admitted one minister this morning.
Merz might not be a social democrat but he is clearly a man Starmer can do business with. On Ukraine, migration and defence, the pit’s fortunes are now tied together. Both have a shared interest in influencing President Trump, who hailed the result for ‘the Conservative party in Germany’, saying voters had ‘got tired of the no common sense agenda.’ Merz’s comments in the campaign and in reaction to exit polls showed he is willing to wrestle with the future of transatlantic relations. He told media that it was his ‘highest priority’ to strengthen Europe such that it achieved ‘independence’ from a ‘largely indifferent’ America. That will be warmly welcomed in both the Treasury and Foreign Office as a sign that Germany might now start to punch in its weight class.
As the results came in last night, the German political commentator Olaf Boehnke noted the ‘common sense amongst many of the moderate parties that if we screw this up with the next coalition and the 2029 elections could be the big moment for the AfD’. Keir Starmer’s No. 10 team say similar when they try to defeat Reform by proving that social democrats can deliver results too. The AfD will now claim the mantle of being the main opposition – and redouble their efforts on finishing one place better in 2029.
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