The news that Pete just posted about how the odds on Labour winning Glasgow East have shortened is, perversely, bad news for Gordon Brown. Labour holding Glasgow East is now priced into Brown’s share price and so he’ll get no bounce from Labour avoiding defeat. However, if the SNP were to pull off a spectacular upset it will be an even bigger story for everyone having written off their chances.
Personally, I’m extremely dubious of anyone predicting the result from Glasgow East with any certainty. By-elections are notoriously hard to call and the social make-up of the constituency makes this one particularly hard to predict. Mike Smithson, the genius behind Political Betting, says that he’ll be staying out of the betting market until the polling stations have opened.
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