In the first elections since Gordon Brown became Prime Minister, Labour’s national vote share fell to 24 percent. Labour’s worst result in a generation is bound to further undermine Brown’s position.
By contrast, the Tories had a good night. Their national vote share rose to 44 percent and they had a few spectacular results, including a win in Southampton and a performance that shows that they have friends in the north. However, the biggest prize may still await them: the London mayoralty. There is a growing consensus among political pundits that Boris Johnson has won. If that is the case, then May 1st 2008 might become the night when it became clear that the Tories are heading for victory at the next election.