Has Israel learned the lessons of Ukraine’s war with Russia?

Israel’s ceasefire with Hamas – which has allowed for the release of dozens of hostages – looks set to continue. But make no mistake: this war is far from over. Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to destroy Hamas, a mission that he will not back down from any time soon. The fight against an estimated 30,000 Hamas soldiers will be a long and difficult one. While Israel’s firepower vastly outmatches that of Hamas, defeating an insurgent army will prove a difficult endeavour for the Israel Defence Forces (IDF). Israel could find itself in a situation comparable to Ukraine – another country with state-of-the-art weaponry that struggles to deliver a knock-out blow against its adversary. 

Both Ukraine and Israel are reaping the benefits of using precision fire weapons, such as 155mm artillery, and drones. But this military technology cannot, on its own, guarantee victory. The two countries face determined enemies who are willing to endure huge numbers of casualties. Hamas and Russia are linked in another way: both have warm relations with Iran, which supplies Russia with drones and supports Hamas’s expertise in drones and missiles. While these weapons are often far more primitive than western-style military equipment, they also ensure that the prospect of total victory for Israel and Ukraine is unlikely. 

Fifty days of war in Gaza, and a year and a half of conflict in Ukraine, provide many lessons for the wider West in what the latest military technology can, and can’t, achieve. While many Hamas fighters and Russian troops are being killed, Israel and Ukraine are a long way from achieving victory. This illustrates that precision weapons on a battlefield against adversaries using old-style tactics, are not always a magic wand. During the Gulf War, when the US and allies confronted Saddam Hussein’s large Soviet-armed conventional army, the Iraqis were decisively defeated using modern technology. Today, in Gaza, Hamas is hanging on; it still has an estimated fourteen battalions of fighters not yet committed to battle. 

Saddam’s army was defeated because it tried to fight a conventional war against the US and it didn’t take into account the way US airpower would destroy Iraqi divisions on the ground. In contrast, Hamas prepared for a war against Israel’s hi-tech army by tunnelling underground and learning how to avoid systems that incorporate artificial intelligence to help find targets.  

Israel can, of course, eventually defeat Hamas on the battlefield, but this does not mean that Hamas will disappear altogether. Israel has defeated Hamas in the past – in the early 2000s and in 2009, for example – but it remained underground during those conflicts, only to reemerge once Israel finished its assaults. The challenge in Gaza is that it takes time – and will cost many Israeli lives – to go after Hamas fighters in tunnels and urban areas. Hamas uses old tactics, but they are effective: they have AK-47s, RPGs and anti-tank missiles. They invested in naval commandos and drones as well. Many Hamas special units, such as its air defense units and drone experts, have been eliminated, according to IDF statements, yet Hamas is a robust adversary. 

Russia also uses a strategy that makes it difficult to defeat with high-end weaponry; it has a numerical advantage in troop numbers over Ukraine and, as a result, is able to deploy its men over hundreds of miles of defence lines – making it difficult for Kyiv to gain ground. Russia’s goal, after capturing some territory in Ukraine, appears to be to draw out the war and force Ukraine into a fight of attrition. This is similar to the German army tactics in the First World War after its advance on Paris was checked. Russia wants to bleed Ukraine white. Hamas also wants to draw out the war, seeking a pause in fighting to slowly trade the 240 hostages it snatched on 7 October. 

The IDF and the Ukrainian armed forces went into battle in these conflicts with very different capabilities. Israel has fifth generation F-35 warplanes and some of the most advanced air defense systems in the world. Israel also develops much of its own advanced military technology, such as new Eitan wheel-armoured personal carriers and state-of-the-art FireFly drones, developed locally. Israel also has formidable defence capability: its Iron Dome system has intercepted many of the 10,000 rockets fired by Hamas. By contrast, Ukraine has had to wait for western weapons, such as main battle tanks and Himars rocket launchers to arrive. The arrival of these weapons has helped Ukraine – but, as Israel is finding too, it is not enough to guarantee victory.