There are just ten days to go until the end of the great Tory leadership race. It has been a mammoth affair, stretching back to Rishi Sunak’s resignation at the beginning of July, with twists at every turn. There have been four ballots, in which three different candidates came top: a reflection of the unpredictable nature of the contest. Many thought it unlikely that both Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch could make it to the membership round together and yet, here they are: the final two.
The Jenrick campaign got off to a strong start, quickly collecting an array of MP endorsements. The former immigration minister comfortably came top of the first two ballots at the beginning of September and entered the final four stage in a confident mood. His team put out bullish briefings that they would get the necessary 40 MPs to progress to the last round. But his conference speech was judged to have fallen a little flat. Jenrick subsequently went backwards in the third round, finishing third behind James Cleverly, before correcting that in the final ballot.
There are MPs in both camps who acknowledge that Jenrick has eaten into Badenoch’s lead
Kemi Badenoch was regarded as the frontrunner even before the campaign began. Her longtime status as a grassroots’ favourite – burnished by her first bid for leader in 2022 – meant that her main challenge was the MPs, not the members. At times, it looked like she could struggle here. In the third ballot she was behind Cleverly and Jenrick, with Tom Tugendhat’s backers seemingly unlikely to transfer en masse over to her. Yet she picked up a dozen names to come top in the final round, with 42 MPs to Jenrick’s 41. A narrow victory, but one that added to an impression of momentum.
The main spectacle of the past fortnight has been the GB News hustings which featured both contenders. In a show of hands, the audience overwhelmingly plumped for the Shadow Housing Secretary over her rival: a clip gleefully shared by the Badenoch camp. Jenrick has been on a media blitz and constantly demanded head to head debates – which his rivals suggest is a tacit acknowledgement that he is running a ‘catch up’ campaign. Badenoch can also boast a steady drumbeat of grandees lining up to back her. Some, such as Lords Soames and Hague, can be dismissed as ‘Remainer wets’, according to one Jenrick supporter. But it is a charge more difficult to level at the likes of Lords Moore and Roberts. The variety of these endorsements is intended to show that Badenoch can unite the party, by boasting support from both left and right. ‘Rob’s only got Vicky Atkins’, claims one MP.
Ballots for members went out last week, with many having already voted. Both camps acknowledge the difficulty of accurately assessing how things currently stand. Anecdote is often cited in place of data. There is optimistic talk of phone canvassing returns and the reactions at membership meetings. One Tory MP backing Badenoch gleefully boasts that she had a longer queue for selfies at the Nottinghamshire hustings than Jenrick, despite the event being on his home turf. A rival Jenrick backer grumbles about the ‘outsized influence’ of the Conservative Home membership surveys, all of which show a commanding lead for Badenoch.
Polling of the 130,000 members is both expensive and difficult to organise. However a survey by YouGov at the beginning of the month suggests that Badenoch now has only a narrow lead of four points over Jenrick. There are MPs in both camps who acknowledge that Jenrick has eaten into Badenoch’s lead but question whether has done enough to close the gap. Even Lord Hannan today says ‘Kemi Badenoch is going to win. And I write as a Rob Jenrick voter’. With just over a week to go – and so many members having already voted – it is difficult to see what, if anything, will change the dynamics of this contest as it reaches the final conclusion.
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