Carl Heneghan

How is the Vallance Covid projection working out?

Picture by Pippa Fowles/No. 10 Downing Street

Prediction, projection, illustration — call it what you wish, but when you make a statement about what’s going to happen next, people are going to assess whether you’re correct or not. Sir Patrick Vallance, the Chief Scientific Adviser, said last week: 

At the moment we think that the epidemic is doubling roughly every seven days…If, and that’s quite a big if, but if that continues unabated, and this grows, doubling every seven days… if that continued, you would end up with something like 50,000 cases in the middle of October per day.

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Written by
Carl Heneghan
Carl Heneghan is professor of evidence-based medicine at the University of Oxford and director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine

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