Today, after years of delay, we’ll finally learn what the Government’s answer is to the airport question. Both supporters and opponents of it expect the Transport Secretary Chris Grayling to announce that the Government is backing a third runway at Heathrow. However, it is also likely that the Government will make encouraging noises about further expansion at Britain’s regional airports.
A Heathrow third runway isn’t the only option on the table though. Here’s the Spectator’s guide to Theresa May’s choices:
Heathrow:
A third runway?
The Airport Commission threw its weight behind the option of building a new runway at Heathrow last year. After publishing its review into the airport question, the Commission said Heathrow was its ‘clear and unanimous’ choice and that building a third runway at Heathrow was the ‘best answer’ to the airport question. It said adding a third runway at London’s hub airport would create up to 77,000 new jobs and up Britain’s GDP by 0.65-0.75 per cent by 2050.
The Commission also said Heathrow’s importance to freight and business flights made it the best bet and said that its status as a hub to long-haul destinations (70 per cent of long-haul flights from Britain land at Heathrow, compared to 11 per cent of the UK’s scheduled long-haul flights to Gatwick) made it the right choice.
So that’s the good news, but what about the downsides? More than 700 homes would need to be knocked down to make way for the new runway and long-suffering residents would face more noise and air pollution. What’s more, at a cost of £18.6bn, it’s the most expensive of the options on the table. And Theresa May appears to be bracing herself for some dissent within her own cabinet. Number Ten said that Ministers would be allowed to speak freely on the matter, giving the likes of Boris Johnson – who said Heathrow expansion was a ‘fantasy’ and vowed to lie down in front of the diggers to halt construction – some breathing space to criticise the decision. It also looks likely to trigger a by-election in Richmond Park, where Zac Goldsmith has vowed to step down and run as an independent if the decision gets the go-ahead. Theresa May is also set to face opposition from her local council in Maidenhead, who have vowed to spend tens of thousands fighting expansion at Heathrow. Before she became Prime Minister, May also voiced her opposition to the expansion of Heathrow, saying that a Government that approved a third runway could never be ‘taken seriously on the environment again’. One senior Government minister believes that the third runway won’t be shovel-ready as a project for a decade.
A longer second runway at Heathrow?
The back-up option for Heathrow is to extend the airport’s northern runway – turning it effectively into two runways operating independently. This plan would be cheaper, with the bill coming in at £13.5bn compared to £18.6bn for Heathrow’s third runway; and it would also be easier to build. What’s more, less homes would need to be knocked down to make way for this scheme (242 homes compared to the 783 houses which would go if the third runway gets approved). But despite these pluses, the Airport Commission was critical of extending Heathrow’s second runway. It said that it would lead to fewer flights than a new runway would be able to offer and also cause more disruption to residents. Today’s decision could throw up some surprises, but it seems a safe bet to rule this option out.
Gatwick:
Gatwick has focused its pitch on being the cheapest option on the table. The final bill for adding another runway here would come in at £9.3bn, much cheaper than doing the same at Heathrow. Building a runway at the Sussex airport would also up GDP by some £89bn, according to the Airport Commission, and lead to noise pollution affecting fewer local residents than Heathrow expansion would. A new runway at Gatwick would also lead to fewer residents losing their homes than either of the two Heathrow options on the table. Gatwick is also an attractive option for increasing the UK’s short-haul market, according to the Airport Commission’s review.
But while holidaymakers and those living in south London might prefer Gatwick over Heathrow, Gatwick is let down logistically by its position south of the capital: the airport is reliant on a single motorway (the M23), compared to the three (M25, M3 and M40) which pass close to Heathrow. It’s also harder for those living north of London to access by rail and isn’t on the tube network. What’s more, while a second runway at Gatwick would also create jobs, it’s thought that the surrounding area has lower unemployment than the area around Heathrow – making it a less appealing option to get the go-ahead. Here’s the Airport Commission’s summary:
‘Gatwick, by contrast, has presented a plausible case for expansion. It is well placed to cater for growth in intra-European leisure flying, but is unlikely to provide as much of the type of capacity which is most urgently required: long-haul destinations in new markets. Heathrow can provide that capacity most easily and quickly.’
A third way?
Another option not currently on the table, which is believed to have been considered by Theresa May, is to offer a consolation prize to Gatwick. In short, this would mean that Heathrow gets the approval to build another runway, with Gatwick told either it could get another runway in the future, or offered a runners-up prize in the form of investment in rail and road infrastructure used by passengers flying to and from the airport. The Sunday Times reported last weekend that because of the logistical difficulties in building a new runway at Heathrow, even if Gatwick had to wait longer for planning permission, insiders believe a new runway at Gatwick could end up opening sooner.
The Airport Commission’s review might have been unanimous in its support of a new runway at Heathrow, but it also accepted that by 2050 Britain would still need extra airport capacity. Tucked away in its report, it says:
‘If new capacity was found to be necessary and feasible, a wide range of options should be considered. This could include airports previously assessed as part of the Commission process, for example Stansted and Gatwick, and airports outside London and the South East, such as at Birmingham or Manchester. There would not be any credible case, however, for a fourth runway at Heathrow.’
Whatever today’s decision, it seems like it won’t be long before we see a re-run of much the same debate in the future.
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