Hedgers vs Ditchers: the new Brexit divide

Brexit could look very different by the end of this month. In the coming days, the government is expected to present a new version of the ‘backstop’, which is meant to address the Irish border problem. This would see the whole of the UK stay in a customs union with the EU and copy EU rules on goods and agriculture until, and unless, a comprehensive trade deal is done. So much for taking back control.

There is another great danger in this approach — it would result in a permanent Brexit limbo. Britain would be a rule-taker unable to pursue a meaningfully different economic model. Once the ‘backstop’ is in place, it’s hard to see what incentive the EU would have to negotiate and approve a big free-trade deal. After all, what would be left to discuss is services — where the UK has a £92 billion surplus with the EU27 in contrast to our £135 billion goods deficit.

Anyway, it is by no means certain that the EU will agree to a UK-wide backstop. They may well try to insist that the backstop can only apply to Northern Ireland. Why would they do this? Because the Commission doesn’t like the idea of the UK essentially being able to stay in the single market for goods but without free movement. Yet every-one knows that a backstop that includes free movement would be politically unacceptable to the UK. The majority of Tory MPs are not, actually, that bothered by the details of the Brexit agreement. But they know that a deal that failed to end free movement would risk the emergence of a new Ukip-style party.