After the drama of Crewe & Nantwich, yesterday’s by-election in Henley looked as though it would be a forgettable affair. After all, Boris’s old constituency is as safe a Tory seat as they come. It was absolutely no surprise when the Tory candidate, John Howell, this morning sailed home to a 10,116 majority over the Lib Dems, on a 50.5 percent turnout.
But the Henley by-election will stick in the memory. Not for the vote’s winner, but for its major loser. Languishing in fifth place – with 1,066 votes – were Labour. That put them behind both the Greens (1,321 votes) and the BNP (1,243 votes).
Of course, no one expected Labour to perform particularly well. But – coming on the day of his first anniversary as Prime Minister – this is hugely embarrassing for Brown. Combine it a poll from earlier this week – showing the smallest ever gap between Labour and Lib Dem support – and I expect some Labour MPs will be having nightmares about being the third-placed party after the next general election.
P.S. Having said that, a YouGov poll for today’s Times has Labour climbing 5 points from last month, to 28 percent. Whilst the Lib Dems have dropped 3 points to 15 percent. The Tories still have a hefty lead, stading as they are on 46 percent (down 1). The poll also contains some poor personal rating for Brown: for instance, 61 percent of respondents think he is a liability to the Labour party.
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