Hillary v. Obama is the real race

James Forsyth says that the mighty race between the two Senators — the first serious black contender against the first serious female contender — will be the main event, as the Republicans’ fate is decided in Baghdad

Clinton’s in, Obama’s in, everybody’s in. Last week the 2008 presidential contest got serious, as the Democratic heavyweights Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama entered the race. Obama announced on Tuesday, Hillary followed on Saturday. Already 16 candidates have launched bids for the White House with as many as eight others expected to join the race soon. Although not a single vote will be cast until 14 January 2008, when the mid-Western state of Iowa gets the ball rolling with a Democratic caucus followed by a Republican one a week later, the campaign is already running at full speed. The contenders are keenly aware that by the time the primaries start there will only be a handful of serious candidates left on either side. The present manoeuvring will determine who’s viable when they reach the starting gate. Indeed, one of the current frontrunners — Clinton, Obama, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani — is likely to have fallen by the wayside by January next year.

The 2008 election will be the most open presidential contest in generations. The defining issue, however, will be the same as last time: Iraq. Forty-eight per cent of voters say it is the most important challenge facing the country, and Iraq is already the biggest obstacle standing between McCain and the White House. But the Democratic primary is the key to the contest, since it will heavily influence the Republican one. Republican primary voters are notoriously pragmatic and if the Democrats look ready to nominate Hillary Clinton, Rudy Giuliani’s colourful personal life and liberal social views and John McCain’s many deviations from the party orthodoxy will be rapidly forgiven.