Hollande runs into the sand

Will President François Hollande’s decision to send French troops into battle against the insurgent fundamentalists in Mali prove a turning point for his faltering presidency? Not for the first time, a nice little war may serve to rescue a failing political reputation.

Hollande’s approval rating jumped from 40 to 44 per cent in the days after the Mali conflict began. Suddenly the man known as ‘Flanby’ — after the French wobbly pudding — looked tough. Pierre Méhaignerie, a former minister under François Mitterrand, applauded Hollande for ‘showing decisiveness, something he has not shown on other issues’.

On Monday, the French-led forces reoccupied Timbuktu, and the rebels were reported to be in retreat. But already ‘the Mali effect’ may be starting to wear off. Last week one French poll found that 60 per cent of voters had not changed their view of the President since the conflict began, and 10 per cent said that they thought less of him. As the war continues, French public opinion may decide that sending a brigade of 3,000 men to invade the Sahara desert was not such a bright idea. Particularly since Hollande’s hasty decision was taken without consulting the National Assembly.

Whereas the French army is limited by UN authority to supporting the Malian government within Mali, the people Hollande routinely describes as ‘les terroristes’ can cross unpatrolled desert borders at will. They can fade in and out of Mauritania, Algeria, Libya and Niger, to name but four Saharan states where they will find refuge and assistance. And from there they can strike, taking hostages and damaging valuable infrastructure without warning.

Donning the mantle of commander-in-chief was particularly tempting for President Hollande following the humiliation caused by ‘l’affaire Depardieu’. In flight from the Socialist government’s 75 per cent top rate of income tax, Gérard Depardieu, a French national icon, applied for both a Belgian and a Russian passport.