How a degree of separation will strengthen the coalition

Almost a year ago, David Cameron and Nick Clegg staged their love-in at the Downing Street rose garden. As I say in the News of the World (£) today, this era is now at a close. When they come back from the 5 May elections, Clegg and Cameron have agreed that they cannot go on as before. An agreement has been struck for an amicable separation. Not divorce — the coalition will keep going. But Cameron and Clegg will put clear blue (and yellow) water between them and drop the pretence that they agree on everything. The coalition is about to enter its Phase Two.
 
Clegg’s analysis is that Phase One was, perhaps, too successful. His over-riding mission was to prove to a sceptical Britain that coalition governments can work and don’t lead to sclerosis. So the Lib Dems’ tuition fee policy was sacrificed on the altar of effective coalition government. Clegg was willing to pay that price, knowing he’d be hated for it. But as he kept saying, this is year one in a five-year government. Paddy Ashdown has been quoting Wellington: “A hard pounding, gentlemen.”
 
Clegg is serious about government, as opposed to the many Lib Dems who prefer the easier life of stone-throwing from opposition. A Lib-Con coalition has agreed radical education and welfare reform, as well as stepping Labour’s deficit reduction programme up a gear. If anything, it’s too active (the needless NHS reform bill being a prime example of activity for activity’s sake)
 
To enact radical reform, Clegg argues, required utter unity of purpose. Against the odds, this was delivered. The friction in the coalition was blue-on-blue: Tories annoyed at Ken Clarke’s lax prisons policy, etc. Problem was that Tories and Lib Dems got on so well that, to the voter, it was by no means clear where Lib Dems stopped and the Tories started. If you agree with David Cameron’s government, why vote Lib Dem? If you disagree, why vote Lib Dem? As a result, the party will be spanked on Thursday. It’s already lost half of its voters nationwide, and may lose control of half of the councils its runs on Thursday. And the AV referendum? It’ll be a “hell, no” — and anyone who thinks different should get down to Ladbrokes where they’re offering 6-1 on a Yes vote.
 
On government, Clegg has succeeded. On party, he has failed. Phase Two of the coalition is intended to remedy this. And it can be done — as Scotland shows. In Holyrood between 99-07, the Lib Dems’ popularity and stature was increased by coalition with Labour. They were dignified by office. Why did this happen in Holyrood and not Westminster? Because the Lib Dems in Holyrood had a coalition with clear dividing lines. Labour and the Lib Dems had separate spin teams and there were identifiably Lib Dem departments whose ministers were seem to perform well. The Scottish Lib Dems had a clear election message: if you like the Lib Dem parts of his coalition, then vote Lib Dem and you’ll get more of them.
 
Clegg can’t say the same. What are the Lib Dem parts of this government? Political enthusiasts know: chiefly his excellent policy of lifting the low-paid out of tax. But the voters don’t know. Clegg and Cameron agreed from the start that there would be no such thing as a “Tory” or “Lib Dem” policy: they’d all be coalition policies. The spin teams in Westminster are mixed. Even the political Cabinet has Lib Dems in it. This government has been structured as a merger, not a coalition: it’s as if they’ve marched their parties into a blender and flicked the on switch.
 
So after the elections, Phase Two will start — where Clegg will distance himself from Cameron on certain issues and start to draw some of these dividing lines which the two were once so keen to avoid. As Clegg puts it, this is a governing coalition not a political coalition. So he’ll make this point. He has agreed with Cameron that he’ll start to make clear that he disagrees with the Prime Minister over various things — harmless enough. He has been given a license to snipe. It’ll be pretty small beer at first. During Winnergate last week, for example, the Lib Dems pointedly said that Clegg would not have used the phrase “calm down, dear”.
 
This separation is expected to be noticeable when Clegg is talking to his own party (who’ll be counting their dead on Friday). He’s expected to blow anti-Tory dog whistles: mentioning issues which excite Lib Dems but don’t interest their coalition counterparts. And he may stop his nodding dog act at PMQs, throwing in the odd cold stare, or shake of the head. Small gestures, but ones intended to let Lib Dems know that he’s a different political beast to Cameron — and represents a distinct political tribe. Clegg does not intend to be drawn by Chris Huhne and Tim Farron into a verbal limbo competition to see who can go the lowest when slagging off the government. (The Lib Dem leadership is reasonably confident that both men will behave themselves in those crucial 48 hours after the local government elections).
 
Is this the end of the coalition? Nope. But the coalition is entering its most vulnerable time — Year Two. As George Osborne has always said, if it survives two years it will survive five years. And it has a much better chance of surviving Year Two with Clegg keeping that much more distance between himself and Cameron. It was never feasible to continue the Rose Garden love-in, it always stretched credulity. As I see it, they’re moving from the Rose Garden model of coalition towards the Holyrood model of coalition: two distinct parties, clearly distinguished, entering a governing coalition. This will please both the Lib Dems, and the Tories (who are already delighted with the way Cameron let the ‘No to AV’ campaign rough up Clegg, although I hear that the Tory leadership did tone down some of anti-Clegg attacks).
 
Legislation for fixed-term, five-year parliaments will be brought in later this year — to illustrate that the coalition is not edging towards collapse. All this may sound odd. But putting more distance between Clegg and Cameron will be, if properly calibrated, the best way of ensuring the coalition survives its crucial second year.