In Spain’s general election last July, the right-wing Partido Popular and the even more right-wing Vox won 170 seats, just short of the 176 they needed to form a government. The support of an MP from Navarre and another from the Canary Islands took them to 172 but that only added to the frustrating sense of ‘so near and yet so far’.
60 per cent of Catalans say there is too much immigration
Then Pedro Sánchez, the incumbent left-wing prime minister, stepped in, cobbled together an alliance with six other parties and, with 179 votes, was duly re-elected. Promising that he would lead a stable, transparent and, above all, ‘progressive’ administration, Sánchez boasted that he had halted the advance of the ‘far-right’ (meaning Vox) in Spain, thereby kick-starting the fight back against ‘right-wing extremism’ in the European Union.
The problem, however, is that amongst Sánchez’s new allies is Junts per Catalunya, the radical Catalan separatist party. To get the seven Junts MPs on board, Sánchez had to promise an amnesty for several hundred people convicted of or charged with crimes related to Catalonia’s illegal declaration of independence in 2017. This amnesty is hugely unpopular with a majority of Spaniards who, very understandably, feel that Sánchez has sacrificed justice in return for the handful of votes that enable him to cling onto power by his fingertips.
In his defence Sánchez claims that the amnesty will normalise the situation in Catalonia. Now, he pointed out proudly in an interview last weekend, instead of independence, the Catalan separatists are discussing issues like rail passes and the VAT on olive oil – exactly the kind of thing, he implied, with which the governments in Spain’s 17 autonomous regions should be concerning themselves.
Unfortunately for Sánchez they’re also discussing a much hotter topic – immigration. Last week when the government wanted to pass three decrees, Junts, as the price of their support, demanded that Catalonia be given control of immigration in Catalonia. Some sort of an agreement was reached and Junts immediately took to the airwaves to boast that the new powers that they had won for Catalonia could be used to expel immigrants who were repeat offenders.
It was an astute move. According to a report compiled by the Elcano Royal Institute, an international affairs think tank in Madrid, after the 2004 Atocha bombings the main scene of jihadist activity in Spain shifted from Madrid and its surroundings to Catalonia. Now 60 per cent of Catalans say there is too much immigration. Recently, Aliança Catalana, a new separatist party, has started winning votes from Junts by advocating a harder line on immigration.
Junts, then, were jubilant at wringing this concession from the government. No sooner had they done so, however, than disagreements about what exactly had been agreed started to emerge. The central government insists that while the details will take months to hammer out, everything will be in line with EU policy and the Spanish constitution. But that’s not so simple: while one clause of the constitution states that immigration is the exclusive responsibility of the national government, another suggests that almost any power can be delegated.
The uncertainty won’t worry the radical separatists of Junts. Since they believe that Catalonia should be a separate country, they don’t care much what the Spanish constitution says. Until they get full control, whenever immigration is a problem they’ll say that Madrid is to blame. In much the same way, demanding a referendum on independence that they know they won’t get allows the separatists to burnish their narrative of victimhood.
Meanwhile, many Spaniards have been left wondering how Sánchez can claim to have saved Spain and Europe from the anti-immigration Vox whilst at the same time preparing to transfer powers to the anti-immigration Junts. How ‘progressive’ is that? And, many are now asking, what other concessions are going to be made to Junts and the other separatist parties with which he’s allied?
And there’s another problem looming for Sánchez: once the Catalan separatists have their amnesty – and the law giving it to them is being fast-tracked – what reason will Junts have to continue to prop up his government? Given the widespread disgust at the prospect of that amnesty, Sánchez is unlikely to want an early election.
Recently, Sánchez, who speaks excellent English, suggested that a good motto is ‘Keep calm and carry on.’ Perhaps he should also remember ‘He who rides a tiger is afraid to dismount.’
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