How Eurosceptics will squeeze Cameron

[audioplayer src=”http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_4_Sept_2014_v4.mp3″ title=”Isabel Hardman, Fraser Nelson and James Forsyth discuss the Tory civil war” startat=60]

Listen

[/audioplayer]Tory backbenchers, who have been happy for months, are once more sunk in gloom, sitting in dejected huddles in the Commons tearoom. William Hague went to gauge the morale of the troops there this week and was told by one MP that the atmosphere was akin to the tail end of 1996; a party waiting for what feels like inevitable defeat. In public and on the news Tories put on a brave face, but in private, it’s grim.

But while the Tory leadership has lost the momentum it built up over the past few months, there is one group feeling distinctly perkier. Yes, Tory Eurosceptics are furious with Carswell and fearful of a Labour government, but they are also aware that the events of the past week have strengthened their hand.

As a result of Carswell’s defection, Eurosceptics now have an exit threat. One of them explains: ‘What this means is that when ten of us go in to see the Prime Minister to ask him to give more details on his renegotiation package, he knows that if he doesn’t give us what we want, more of us will defect.’

Backbenchers were keen to squeeze out more details on the European reform plan before Carswell defected, and now they think it essential. They see it as their duty to re-educate the PM. As one says: ‘The Prime Minister has to be dragged kicking and screaming each time to a more Eurosceptic position, and then when he’s there, he finds that it’s popular.’

Steve Baker, who has consistently rebelled on Europe, argues that it goes deeper than just setting out a shopping list on reform. ‘We are always going to be an uncomfortable and unhappy family unless we reject the idea of living in the European Union as a social democracy.