There can be no doubt that Nigel Farage was one of the big political winners of 2024. His decision to lead Reform UK into the general election shaped the campaign and was a significant factor in the scale of the Conservative defeat. Reform won more than four million votes and polls suggest they have gained further support since, raising the real possibility that they could replace the Conservative party as the primary voice of small ‘c’ conservative Britain.
Nigel Farage and his party have several things going for them. Number one is that immigration continues to be a key issue for the British public. We know that immigration and asylum were key issues that drove 2019 Conservative voters – and others – into the Reform column last July. Today Ipsos polling consistently shows it remains a top three issue of importance to the public. Some 55 per cent think the current Labour government is doing a bad job managing the issue, with our data also showing Reform as the most trusted party on the subject. They have a seven-point margin over Labour.
More generally, Reform has a real opportunity to profit from a sense of malaise in British politics. Pessimism is rife. The public consistently tell us that the country is heading in the wrong direction and half feel more pessimistic about their own financial situation following the Spring Statement. Having voted for change last July, many are starting to doubt it is coming. Their patience is short.
It’s in this context that one in three people now tell Ipsos that they would consider voting Reform. A majority of those say a key reason is that they see Reform as the most likely party to offer the UK the change it needs.
Farage himself is also a factor. He remains a controversial figure. Some 29 per cent of the public hold a favourable opinion of him and 49 per cent unfavourable. However, in absolute terms, the proportion of Britons that are favourable to him is similar to that of Keir Starmer (29 per cent) and above that of Ed Davey (24 per cent) and Kemi Badenoch (18 per cent).
Whether Farage is an asset or a hindrance to Reform is often debated. It shouldn’t be. His presence on the national stage is a significant obstacle to any kind of meaningful Conservative party comeback. The nuances of Badenoch’s leadership style and policy interventions can be discussed but the reality is that she lacks name recognition with, and the appeal to, Boris Johnson’s 2019 election-winning coalition. These voters have not forgiven the Conservatives for perceived broken promises over immigration and perceptions that Brexit has been squandered. If Farage remains a major player on the national stage, pushing against this tide may prove difficult.
And yet here we should pause. Clearly there is intense public dissatisfaction with the direction of the country and how it is being led. Clearly support for Reform has grown since the election, with the Conservative party struggling for a voice in the face of a resurgent Farage. But this does not suddenly mean Reform are heading for government. Winning four or five million votes is one thing – Farage has done it before. Winning a general election is quite another.
Farage needs to show he can run a competent government
When we ask the public for the main negatives of Farage becoming prime minister, three key issues stand out. Number one is he would make the country more divided (37 per cent), followed by the perception that he is too close to Donald Trump (35 per cent) and that there is not enough talent in Reform UK to form a competent government (32 per cent). Rather than a focus on policy areas like the NHS (21 per cent) or the economy (23 per cent) the main concern here appears to be ‘risk’. Donald Trump could be long gone by the next general election, but public concern that Reform cannot form a competent team of leaders could be harder to shift. Many fear that prime minister Farage would mean a return to Brexit divisions they hoped had been left behind.
This is the challenge for Nigel Farage. Public discontent over immigration and other issues and a lack of faith in other parties can get you so far. But to get into government Farage needs to show he can run a competent government and be a unifying force – with credible policies on other issues like the economy and public services too. As it stands, when presented a choice, Britons prefer Keir Starmer to Nigel Farage as prime minister by an 11-point margin (36 per cent to 25 per cent). To win, Farage must not be a risky choice.
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