Freddy Gray

Apres Macron, the radical left?

Apres Macron, the radical left?
A vandalised Macron campaign poster in Paris, April 2022. Photo: JOEL SAGET/AFP via Getty Images
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Bof! That useful French word – an older and slightly less irritating version of the American-English ‘meh’ – is how many people feel about the re-election of Emmanuel Macron.

The centre holds even as things fall apart – in 21st century France, anyway. It was inevitable and in the end easy. Mainstream commentators, almost unanimously pro-Macron, have spent the last few days trying to inject a sense of drama into the vote by suggesting the threat Le Pen posed was great. But it was painfully obvious that Macron would win. At 44, he will almost certainly still be President in 2027, when the constitution (as currently composed) will compel him to stand down.

He isn’t loved. The abstention rate on Sunday is estimated to be 29.6 per cent; up 2 per cent on the second round of 2017. His job approval rating is around 41 per cent, according to the latest surveys.

He is, however, more respected among the French, especially the elderly, than Brexit-supporters in the Anglosphere tend to think. That fact is reflected in his impressive victory tonight. He projects confidence and competence even as his leadership does the opposite. That is useful in elections. He is arrogant and dislikable. He wasn’t sufficiently insupportable to make Marine Le Pen president.

Le Pen did better in the debate on Wednesday night than expected. She also performed better in the second round; up from 33 per cent in 2017 to more than 40 per cent in 2022.

The ‘Front Republican’ against l'extrême droite won again, but it is a diminishing force. Le Pen’s father only got 18 per cent in 2002. Marine has expanded the appeal of her movement a long way. But not enough.

Will she keep plodding on to victory in 2027? Perhaps. But the real threat to France in 2027 could come from the radical left more than the right. Jean Luc Mélenchon far outperformed expectations two weeks ago by nearly reaching the second round ahead of Le Pen: he got almost 22 per cent of the vote and came top among 18-to-24-year-olds.

Asked if he will run again in 2027, Mélenchon veered towards saying no: ‘I can tell you modestly that at this hour on this day, I do not believe that… I’ve worked with others and there is a very good team here that is capable of carrying on this fight and taking it on to victory.’

Mélenchon did say he wants to be Prime Minister, thinking he could force Macron into an uneasy alliance after winning more seats in the Assemblée Nationale elections, which begin on May 10. That’s an almost absurdly ambitious idea, but crazier things have happened.

Melenchon told his voters two weeks ago to hold their noses and support Macron. Only around 40 per cent did, according to the latest polls. Thirteen per cent went for Le Pen; 45 per cent abstained.

Macron likes to feel he can read the political climate. It would be typically canny of him, having pivoted right in the build-up to this election, to go left in its aftermath. Under all that chest hair, he's an empty vessel.

The hope for conservatives is that, from the ashes of Valérie Pécresse’s terrible failure, the late collapse of Zemmour and the repeated losses of Le Pen, a new ‘l’union des droites’ might rise triumphant. Until then, c’est Macron, bof.