Ed Miliband has had three launches in three months – but, much as I hate to admit
it, things are getting better for him. His party are now consistently ahead in the polls, so in my News of the World column today I look at what’s going right. Here are my main points:
1) Cameron’s embrace has, alas, proved toxic for the Lib Dems. I have been impressed by Nick Clegg since he entered government. I’d like to see him rewarded for the tough decisions he took, and in more ways than being named ‘politician of the year’ by the Threadneedle/Spectator awards. But it just isn’t happening. The ‘merger’ model of coalition that they have chosen (as opposed to the Holyrood model used in Scotland in 1999-07) has robbed them of their identity. This has seismic implications.
2) The collapse of the Lib Dems has sent British politics into flux. Of every six voters who backed Clegg in the TV debate mania, only one would vote for him now. I can’t think of a similar meltdown in modern political history. Our Spectator cover story this week, ‘Death of the Lib Dems’ (reprinted in the Daily Mail yesterday as their lead feature) is a landmark. As Nick Cohen argues, the coalition has sent shedloads of voters back to Labour – an undeserved gift for Miliband & Co. The Labour leader is changing strategy to suit. Constant relaunch is better than sticking with the wrong strategy.
3) It’s easy to tease Miliband. To say that he looks like Wallace without Gromit, or like a panda donated by the Chinese government. But Panda boy has been getting eight-point leads – and if there was an election tomorrow he’d be on a Labour majority of 22.
4) Unlike Cameron or Blair, Miliband is not picking a fight with a section of his party. He’s not defining himself against anyone: he’s not defining himself at all. Other than to use platitudes like “progressive,” etc. His mission is to erect a big tent once more, to replace Brown’s Bivouac.
5) Being boring is oddly powerful in politics. Grey John Major won a stonking victory in 1992. Clem Attlee trounced Churchill in 1945. Lack of entertainment value is by no means a bar to office. Miliband needn’t worry too much about his lack of ‘pull’ factor. The main force in UK politics right now is a push factor: the coalition is pushing Lib Dem voters away. Labour could be led by a monkey on a stick right now – it would still be eight points ahead of the Tories, thanks to Lib Dem defectors. So all Red Ed needs to do is say NOTHING that will put them off. In his case, that means saying nothing. Which he’s pretty good at.
6) Ed’s latest weapon is branding: not New Labour but Fluffy Labour. He offers, of course, “a broad, open, progressive majority built on a coalition of values.” Sometimes it’s a “broad movement of the mainstream”. What else? To Labour, it’s the party led by Red Ed that wants to tougher on nasty capitalists. To Lib Dems, it’s led by a proud “progressive”. To ex-Tories (and let’s remember about 10 percent of Oldham Tories defected to Labour at the last election), it’s a small-c conservative party led by a nice, middle-class guy concerned about preserving high streets. In other words, Fuzzy Labour is all things to all people.
7) Five years from an election, Miliband can get away with this lack of definition. Cameron can say “but what would you do?” and it’s embarrassing in PMQs. But the less Miliband says, the less people have to hate.
8) Inaction has its merits. One of my favourite put-downs in cinema is this line from Casablacca (click here, 64 secs in). Ugarte: “You despise me, don’t you?” Rick: “If I gave you any thought I probably would.” Now, if voters gave Ed Miliband much thought, they’d probably object to him. But they don’t. Nor does he plan to give them cause to. As Reagan said: “Don’t just do something. Stand there.” Inaction often has its merits.
9) Some 51 percent now disapprove of the coalition government. Who do they vote for? Coalition has granted Labour monopoly control of opposition. No bad thing. Especially as support for the cuts starts to dwindle.
10) If Miliband has any political wherewithal, his next move should be to weaponise the inflation issue. UK inflation is out of control – as we’ll doubtless see again when figures come out on Tuesday – and it’s been so long since Britain has suffered inflation that folk forget how hugely unpopular it is. An unfortunate time for a VAT rise. I suspect it won’t be too long before Miliband starts to say “now is not the time to put up prices” – and encourage people to blame Osborne. As CoffeeHousers know, I blame Mervyn King and his merry men at the MPC. But voters facing 5 percent RPI inflation may not make this distinction.
Miliband is a dismal actor in the Westminster soap opera. Cameron is often nothing short of superb. But elections are not Oscars. Thatcher might have lost in 1983 had Labour not split. The collapse of the Lib Dems might just see Labour getting it back together again.
UPDATE: To reassure CoffeeHousers, I am not developing a soft spot for Ed Miliband. The above seeks to examine the strange decoupling between his personal performance (dire, as we saw on Marr today) and Labour’s performance (worryingly strong, as we see in YouGov today). Not even Verity could deny that something is going right for him. Anyway, I’m off to Jon Sopel’s sofa now for some more of the same.
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