How Labour lost Scotland (and could lose the Union)

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[/audioplayer]Just four months ago Scotland was the scene of great cross-party co-operation — unprecedented in peace-time politics. Gordon Brown was offering advice on David Cameron’s speeches, Douglas Alexander and the Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson turned themselves into a formidable debating duo, and Charles Kennedy was being hailed by Labour strategists as the man who would save the Union.

Even George Galloway got in on the act. One of the oddest sights I have witnessed in politics was the Respect MP gushingly introducing the Liberal Democrat Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Danny Alexander, at a pro-UK rally. It all marked a recognition that Great Britain is far bigger, and far more important, than party politics.

Now, however, the Union finds itself a football in a general election campaign. The consensus that defined the referendum battle has been replaced with increasingly ugly bickering between the unionist parties, with Labour and the Tories taking it in turn to accuse each other of endangering the Union.

It now seems as if the British general election result will be decided in Scotland. The Scottish contingent at Westminster looks set to be dominated by the Scottish National Party, which is enjoying a phenomenal post-referendum surge in popularity. Polls indicate it will win 55 out of the 59 Scottish seats; the bookmakers are expecting a result closer to 35 seats.

Either way, the SNP may be in a position to put Labour in power by agreeing to some form of confidence-and-supply arrangement. Should Nicola Sturgeon, the party’s new leader, and Alex Salmond, who plans to return to Westminster, refuse to cut a deal with Ed Miliband, they would be putting David Cameron back in No.