How long have the coalition and Ed got?

The received wisdom seems to be that while the government is, as Charles Clarke put it, utterly incoherent and inept, devoid of strategy and consistency of policy, Cameron is getting away with it because he has held office for only a year, ie he is still “new”. However, the same magnanimity of received wisdom has not attached itself to Ed Miliband who is thought to be similarly hopeless but without the honeymoon qualification; and yet, of course, he is much more new to his job than is Cameron.

The difference, I suspect is a consequence of there being nobody one can think of who might take over from Cameron, whereas there are plenty of respectable candidates lined up behind the Labour arras. As it happens, I thought the coalition would last not much longer than a year and Ed Miliband about the same. Looks like I’m probably wrong on both counts, as things stand – but, does anyone think I’m very far wide of the mark? Or do you think that we will have an election in four years time with the coalition still in place and Ed Miliband leading Labour?