How is the UK’s economic bounce back from the pandemic years going? Next week the Office for National Statistics will provide us with a host of new monthly data, including an economic growth and labour market update for the month of February and the headline inflation rate for March.
The inflation rate is the real kicker. While GDP and labour market headlines from February will allow us to further gauge how strong the economy was at the start of the year, March’s CPI rate will factor the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This has undoubtedly had an impact on prices: the cost of energy, in particular.
There’s little doubt that the inflation rate is going up again. But by how much? Over at Deutsche Bank, the research team is projecting the year-on-year CPI rate will rise significantly, from 5.5 per cent in February to 6.7 per cent in March (this projection lines up with the consensus too).
The unemployment rate gives some cause for hope
Meanwhile, Deutsche’s predictions for February GDP growth sit slightly above the consensus: at 0.3
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