How Rishi Sunak’s spring challenge could decide the election

Over the past month, there has been increasing optimism within the Tory party that the political situation may not be as apocalyptic as first feared. The polls appear to be narrowing slightly, Rishi Sunak’s approval ratings have risen and there are early signs of progress on the Prime Minister’s policy priorities. But it’s the coming months – as MPs return to Westminster following their Easter recess – that will show whether this trend is here to stay, and if Sunak can stay in control of events.

The Prime Minister is kicking off the new season with a speech on one of his favourite topics: maths until 18. When Sunak first included this agenda in his new year’s speech along with his five priorities there were raised eyebrows among some Tory MPs who feel it is not a key voter issue. While he sees it as key to long term growth, it is not a policy that is going to decide the party’s fate. Instead there are other issues that threaten to throw Sunak off course.

The first of which is the ongoing strikes. When the government’s pay offer – a 5 per cent pay rise for 2023-24, along with a one-off lump sum payment – was put to health workers, there had been hope that it would spell an end to mass NHS strikes. While Unison members voted to accept the offer, nurses at the Royal College of Nursing have narrowly rejected it.

There are still two unions left to vote, after which the four health unions will vote on the pay offer at a meeting of the NHS Staff Council. It means that the pay offer could still be accepted, with the risk of strikes continuing among some workers regardless. There are also more strikes coming from civil servants, junior doctors and teachers. If Sunak wants to pitch himself as a problem-solving prime minister, ongoing mass disruption will make that harder – even if public support for striking workers falls.

Ongoing NHS strikes will make Sunak’s priority of slashing waiting lists much harder to do. As for his small boats pledge, the Prime Minister used an interview last week to downplay expectations. When the illegal migration bill returns to the Commons it will be a test of Tory unity with MPs on both sides of the party keen to tweak the legislation. The results of the current appeal on the High Court verdict that the Rwanda scheme is lawful will be a key moment. If flights take off this year, it is viewed in government as a game changer.

Sunak’s first big electoral test comes next month in the local elections. Over the weekend, Tory party chairman Greg Hands played a game of expectation management, suggesting during his Sunday broadcast round the party could lose over 1,000 seats. While the Conservatives are braced for a tricky set of results on 5 May, the hope is that it may not be quite so bad as the horror predictions and that the coronation of King Charles one day after results will swiftly move the news agenda on. For Sunak, he needs to keep up a sense of momentum against Keir Starmer. Otherwise it won’t take long for the Tories to return to a state of pessimism and for in-fighting to once again dominate the agenda.