When Nick Clegg speaks today, he can – as usual – rely on a good deal of support from
those in the hall. According to YouGov, current Lib Dem supporters support him by a 2-to-1 margin. That’s stronger approval than Miliband gets from Labour voters, although nowhere near the
popularity David Cameron enjoys with his own party: 93 per cent of Tories say the Prime Minister’s doing a good job.
Among the population as a whole, though, there’s no doubt Clegg is unpopular. But he does at least appear to have stopped the rot – both in his personal ratings and his party’s. As the graph below shows, the majority of the Lib Dems’ poll decline – from the 24 per cent they won in May 2010 to their trough around 10 per cent – occured in the first few months after the election. The huge drop in personal support for Clegg happened largely in the autumn and winter – the time of the tuition fees debacle. Since Christmas, neither measure has seen any significant change.
Of course, stopping the decline is one thing, reversing the trend quite another. If the Lib Dems fail to do so, they will face a pounding at the next election – especially if the boundary changes go through. One of their main hopes is that, by enduring the trials of coalition, they can prove themselves to be a sensible party of government. Unfortunately, most people aren’t persuaded yet:
On the other hand, 28 per cent is a larger proportion than have ever voted for the Liberal Democrats before – so Clegg does stand a good chance of wooing new voters, even if he can’t regain those he’s lost.
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