Since Labour are all set to prevail in the Oldham and Saddleworth by-election (as was always likely) the government, and specifically the Deputy Prime Minister, will need a line to sell. It’s made a little awkward by the fact that this unecessary election is the consequence of a lawsuit brought by the defeated Liberal Democrat candidate but, hey, nothing’s perfect and no-one ever said these things would be easy. So what to say? Well…
All by-elections are unusual, unique affairs but this one was even more unusual than most. It was not fought because the incumbent MP had died but because a judge ruled that he had broken electoral law. Regardless of the facts of the Woolas case, it is unsatisfactory when an election result is over-turned by an unelected judge. When this happens no-one should be surprised if voters respond by doubling-down on the same party that won the original contest. They dislike having judges tell them who may and who may not represent them in parliament. If Mr Woolas had been permitted to stand perhaps voters would have reacted badly to him but since he was barred from seeking election, voters were free to thumb their noses at the judge and the system without having to associate themselves with any of the ugliness that characterised May’s election in Oldham. No-one should be astonished that they’ve done so.
A little clunky, perhaps, but the point is this: the government has bungled this by-election badly, failing to set expectations at a sensibly low level. As a consequence the Lib Dem defeat is going to be another embarrassment for a government media operation that rarely seems terribly persuasive or convicncing at the best of times. (cf the nonsense of Alarm Clock Britain.)
Generally speaking whenever someone complains that you have a communications problem what they mean is that you have a policy problem. But this government really does have communications problems too.
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