James Forsyth James Forsyth

How to stop China from attacking Taiwan

(Getty images)

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the West has got many things right. Yet there is no doubt that Western mistakes over the past few years, and splits in the weeks and months beforehand, made Putin think he could get away with his invasion. The West cannot afford to repeat these with Taiwan, I say in the Times today.

There are four lessons that the West should learn from Ukraine if it is to deter China from attacking Taiwan. First, it should be explicit that Beijing will be hit with sanctions at least as strong as those on Russia if it tries to blockade or take Taiwan.

The West should move to equip the Taiwanese forces now rather than waiting until the invasion fleet is on the horizon

Second, the West should act now to reduce its dependence on China. Just think how much more effective the sanctions on Russia would be if they could hit its oil and gas exports too. 

Third, the West should move to equip the Taiwanese forces now rather than waiting until the invasion fleet is on the horizon. Ukrainian forces have done remarkably with the weaponry they had at the beginning of the conflict, but imagine how things might have turned out if they had had Star Streak missiles, Switchblade drones and lethal aid from more than 20 countries before the Russians invaded. 

Fourth, regional powers such as Japan should start increasing defence spending now in the manner that the Germans are finally doing.

Biden and Xi are currently speaking about, among other things, Ukraine. There’s little doubt that if Russia paid only a small price for its assault on Ukraine, a Chinese attempt to take Taiwan by force would have become significantly more likely. As it is, the international opprobrium to hit Moscow and the pounding it is taking from Ukraine’s military may well change the calculus in Beijing.

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