How to win the World Cup (in the betting shop)

Summer is a difficult time for serious investments — it’s hard to be rational when hot — so why not try betting on the football world cup instead? Thanks to technology, sports gambling can feel a lot like investing these days. Internet betting exchanges are not bookmakers, but trading platforms. Any adult can buy or sell a bet — or position, if you prefer — and ‘trade out’ at a profit or loss before the match, race, or tournament even begins. Which means you are gambling less against sporting chance, more against the human whims of the market.

Let me give you an example. If you had taken the advice of, ahem, this column in November and backed France at 47/1 to win the World Cup in Brazil on 13 July, you could now lay off (bet against the French) at 26/1. If you laid on and off for the same amount, say £100, and France failed to win you would have covered your losses. In the unlikely event that Les Bleus do lift the World Cup trophy on 13 July, you stand to win £2,100 (having lost £2,600 at 26/1 but won £4, 700 at 47/1).

It’s still gambling and still dangerous. Had the French lost their playoff qualifier against Ukraine after I wrote that column, and they very nearly did, they would not be going to Brazil. But the point then was that the odds on the French seemed long, and the point now is that the average punter can find good wagers online and adjust his position to reduce or even cut out his risk if and when the market moves in his favour. He can be on both sides of the bet, as they say on Wall Street.