I’m afraid that try as I might, I cannot be excited by Philip Hammond’s budget any more than he seemed excited to deliver it. How could it be otherwise when this is, in almost every respect, a make-up and make-do budget that is, in any case, held hostage to fortune?
For understandable reasons, the Treasury prefers not to talk about Brexit. More than any other government department, it considers Brexit a lamentable episode of self-harm. At best, gains on the swings will be forfeited on the roundabouts and the Treasury is not inclined to believe that the best of all possible worlds is actually anything like the most probable kind of world.
Brexit is mentioned just three times in the Red Book. The OBR, by contrast, is happy to wade into these murky waters. Brexit features 66 times in its budget report. Its forecasts assume ‘a relatively smooth exit from the EU next year’.
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