Dominic Cummings

ICM poll shows public support for a second referendum on the EU

ICM poll shows public support for a second referendum on the EU
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A fortnight ago I wrote a blog on the issue of exit plans and a possible second referendum. According to various media reports, Boris liked the idea and has told people so. I thought it would be interesting to see some numbers so asked ICM to consider it. Attached here are the results.

[datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.uk/NRsOr/index.html"]

Unsurprisingly, they show that 1) the public supports a second referendum, and 2) the prospect of one makes the idea of voting No in the first vote less scary and therefore may increase the chances of No winning the first vote.

[datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.uk/mlPHy/index.html"] It is also worth considering that the public has not focused on the first vote yet so the idea of a second vote is necessarily an abstract and hazy thing. As the campaign develops, I suspect these numbers will strengthen.

I have a few thoughts about this though no time to sketch them now, but I thought it would be useful for people to look at some numbers.

NB. It is not for me to decide what the No campaign position should be on a second referendum and I have not decided what I think about it, but the Five Presidents’ Report, the Hollande interview today on the need for another Delors-esque great leap forward etc show how important it is for these things to be thought through quickly…