Patrick O’Flynn Patrick O’Flynn

If Boris doesn’t blink over Brexit, Starmer becomes unelectable

If it’s No Deal, then it will usher in a crisis that will highlight the leader’s negative baggage and remind everyone why he should never be trusted, probably dooming him to ignominious defeat at the next election.

If that is your view of the post-transition political landscape then I heartily agree. But, like most of the punditry, I bet you’ve got the wrong leader in mind. Because the man who will actually be holed below the waterline is Keir Starmer, not Boris Johnson. Let me explain by going through what No Deal will mean for each leader.

Certainly a No Deal end to the Brexit transition is likely to be accompanied by bumpy times during the ensuing adjustment, including queues at ports and even shortages of particular products. It is therefore by no means guaranteed that Johnson won’t take a short-term hit from all this in the eyes of some potential Tory voters.

The formula is well-established: lower growth, higher unemployment, pressure on living standards and the undershooting of expectations usually add up to voter scratchiness.

Yet even that temporary hit may well not happen. Why? Because voters will see that Johnson did his best to reach a deal but had the bottle to walk away when the EU was only prepared to offer terms that would have humiliated Britain and betrayed the instruction given by the people in the referendum of 2016. In the eyes of many, Johnson’s standing will therefore actually be enhanced.

Another factor to be weighed in the balance, as far as Boris Johnson is concerned, is that Britain’s success in rolling out a Covid vaccination programme ahead of the game means that UK economy is going to be roaring ahead by the spring of 2021. The idea that a couple of additional percentage points are being lost from GDP because of trade friction with the EU is liable to be lost in the great rebound boom.

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