‘If it goes to a vote he’s finished’: the battle to save Boris

Two years ago, Boris Johnson had British politics at his feet. He had won the largest Tory majority since Thatcher, broken the Brexit deadlock and forged a new electoral coalition.

Yet Johnson now finds himself on the verge of a vote of no confidence by his own MPs, and this turnaround hasn’t been triggered by some great ideological divide: this isn’t like old Tory arguments over imperial preference, the poll tax or Europe but by Johnson’s own behaviour and the way No. 10 is run.

Downing Street had hoped that Sue Gray’s report would come out later this week, and they presumed it would give them the opportunity to launch a fightback. The plan was to argue that Johnson hadn’t knowingly broken the rules and that a Prime Ministerial resignation would be a disproportionate response. Various people were set to fall on their swords to show that the Downing Street culture was changing. Not everyone in the building was enthusiastic about this strategy (for obvious reasons) but senior figures were prepared to resign to try to protect Johnson himself.

The Gray report is now likely to arrive next week. Rumours swirl in Whitehall that this timetable is not good news for No. 10, but no one is certain. What is clear, though, is that the Gray report would now need to be very favourable to Johnson if a vote of no confidence is to be averted, and it is unlikely to be so.

Johnson’s political views have always been flexible, but one constant in his thinking has been an objection to the state bossing people around. Covid, though, made Johnson the bossiest Prime Minister in peacetime history. He ended up dictating the minutiae of all our lives, how many guests you could have in your home, how far you could travel.