The West’s indifference towards Libya may create the very conditions for extremism that
we normally seek to avoid. In today’s Times, the war correspondent Anthony Loyd writes (£) from Benghazi
about the dangers of an extremist backlash as the pro-democracy forces become disillusioned with the West:
“The growing suspicion and anger towards the West offers an unsettling glimpse of the direction that the country’s revolution may take.”
This has several potential implications inside and outside Libya. Outside the country, it could provide an opportunity for Osama bin Laden — who has been otherwise marginalised, following the protests in Tunisia and Egypt — to argue that the West’s inaction, and even complicity with Gaddafi, resulted in Muslims being slaughtered. That is the argument he used over Bosnia and Kosovo to great effect — even though the facts of the West’s policy then, as now, were more nuanced.
Inside Libya, as the rebels may be forced to adopt insurgent-like tactics, al Qaeda is likely to be on hand to offer material support. And even if the majority of rebels do not sympathise with al Qaeda, there is always someone who is willing to accept their support and murderous tactics. As the example of Iraq demonstrates, once helped by al Qaeda such groups can quickly grow in strength and power.
If this happens, Libya may turn out to be the inverse of Iraq. There, Western action created an opportunity for al Qaeda that had not been in the country beforehand; in Libya it may be Western inaction that invites bin Laden in.
Comments