In real elections, little sign of the Brown bounce

The Populus data James mentions has been a major factor in soothing nerves within the Tory ranks. I had been told about these figures on two separate occasions by Shadow Cabinet members, but asked not to use it. The data is central to Operation Don’t Panic, Cameron’s main mission since returning from Brittany. Within some CCHQ quarters, there is concern that Populus data is luring the Cameroons into a false sense of security. But here’s another factor to consider: there were 11 council by-elections in August and the Tory lead averaged 12.5% according to Press Association analysis. In these real elections, there is little sign of a Brown bounce. Anyway, if Brown wants to spoil my summer holiday by calling an election, he has about nine hours. I take off at 8.30pm.