In the AV referendum, either Clegg or Cameron has to lose

Tomorrow both Clegg and Cameron will give speeches on AV, Clegg for and Cameron against. They’ll be very civil about their disagreement. But the truth is that one of them has to lose in this vote and the loser will have a very unhappy party on his hands.

As Steve Richards points out in The Independent today, there’s been a lot more talk of the consequences for Clegg of AV going down than of what happens to Cameron if it passes. But Cameron would have almost as many problems if it passes as Clegg would if it failed.

Fairly or not, a large number of Tory MPs will blame Cameron if Britain ends up with AV. They’ll say that Cameron didn’t campaign hard enough, that he didn’t direct enough donors the No campaign’s way (a charge No 10 is clearly sensitive to), that he stopped the No campaign attacking Clegg- etc.