A new report signed off on by the various US intelligence agencies says that Iran halted its nuclear weapons programme in 2003. This declaration is, to put it mildly, a major surprise and reverses the judgement of the 2005 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear ambitions. It also transforms the political and diplomatic debate about what to do about Iran. At first blush, it appears to thwart any chance America and the EU-3 had of getting the UN Security Council to vote for tougher sanctions on Iran.

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